Pi Network’s native token is currently experiencing a period of high volatility and downward pressure. As of now, the token is trading at $0.4710, down 2.7% in the last 24 hours and nearly 14.7% over the past week. With a market capitalization of $3.59 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $82.73 million, there’s no question that activity around Pi remains strong, but most of it appears to be driven by sell-offs rather than accumulation.

The recent correction in Pi’s price can largely be attributed to a major token unlock event. Around 270 million Pi tokens were released into circulation, creating a supply shock. In addition to this, approximately 6 million Pi worth $2.8 million were moved to centralized exchanges in just 24 hours, putting immense pressure on the market’s sell side. This has caused widespread concern among holders and traders, particularly those looking for near-term price recovery.

From a technical standpoint, bearish momentum is clearly dominating. On the daily chart, Pi is trading below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the mid-Bollinger Band, which highlights weakness in short-term price structure. The Bollinger Bands themselves have tightened, with the upper band positioned at $0.6099 and the lower band at $0.4514—forming what is known as a “squeeze.” This setup often signals incoming volatility, but with Pi price pinned near the lower band at $0.4708, the risk of further downside remains elevated.

Momentum indicators also support a bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 34.94, below the neutral 50 mark and approaching oversold territory. Typically, an oversold RSI suggests a potential bounce, but in Pi’s case, there is no bullish divergence to indicate that a reversal is imminent. Additionally, the MACD remains below the signal line, further reinforcing the bearish structure.

Despite the price decline, there are still signs of underlying network activity. The Pi mining rate has risen slightly by 0.93%, from 0.0029887 to 0.0030165 Pi per hour. While this uptick in mining suggests the network continues to grow and attract users, it has so far failed to translate into buying pressure in the open market. The rising user activity is being outweighed by short-term sell-offs triggered by token unlocks and lack of immediate utility or mainnet catalysts.

In terms of recovery levels, the key price to watch is $0.53, which represents the middle of the Bollinger Band and an area of short-term resistance. A sustained move above this level would be the first sign of strength and could open the door to further targets at $0.61 and $0.70. However, without a clear fundamental catalyst—such as the full launch of Pi Network’s Open Mainnet or a major partnership driving real-world utility—any breakout attempt might face heavy resistance and fail to gather momentum.

Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, Pi reaching $1 remains a possibility, but only if several conditions align. First, market sentiment across the broader crypto landscape must improve, particularly in altcoins. Second, Pi Network must deliver on its roadmap, including opening up the mainnet to greater utility, adoption, and possibly exchange listings. Lastly, tokenomics must shift to favor demand over supply—either through burns, locking mechanisms, or incentivizing long-term holding.

For now, the outlook remains neutral to bearish. While the Pi community continues to grow, and institutional interest in cryptocurrencies remains strong, the near-term technicals for Pi suggest caution. The ongoing price pressure, coupled with low buying momentum and oversupply concerns, means that the path to $1 will require more than just speculation—it will require significant network development and tangible use cases that can attract both users and capital. Until then, traders and investors may want to monitor key support levels at $0.45 and resistance at $0.53 for short-term cues.