Polkadot (DOT) is showing renewed signs of life after posting an impressive 10% daily gain, accompanied by a sharp 19% rise in trading volume. The surge comes as the asset tests the crucial $5.30 resistance level—a zone that could define whether the altcoin continues its upward trajectory or faces a temporary reversal. As of the latest data, DOT was trading around $5.07, just shy of this key level, and the market is watching closely to see what comes next.

The $5.30 price point has become a psychological and technical battleground for Polkadot. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a broader rally, potentially aiming for the $8.00 resistance. In more optimistic scenarios, further momentum might even push the price toward the $11.67 zone. However, if DOT fails to hold above $5.30 and is rejected from this level, the price may retrace to the $4.70 support or even retest the deeper $4.00–$4.30 accumulation range, where the asset had previously consolidated.

Adding to the current optimism is the positive shift in technical indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flipped bullish after the MACD line crossed above the signal line. This crossover, combined with growing histogram bars, suggests increasing upside pressure. Traders interpret this as a potential signal of continued momentum in the near term.

The structure of the price chart shows that DOT has broken out from a prolonged base accumulation phase. This breakout typically signals a bullish trend, but much depends on the coin’s ability to establish itself above the $5.30 resistance with convincing volume. Without strong buying support, this could turn into a classic fakeout—a scenario where the price breaks resistance temporarily but fails to sustain and reverses sharply.

One crucial metric adding nuance to the price action is Polkadot’s liquidation heatmap, which reveals dense concentrations of long positions at leverage levels of 25x and 50x. These positions are primarily located between the $4.54 and $5.09 range. The presence of such high leverage indicates that traders are aggressively betting on continued price increases. However, it also makes the market vulnerable to swift corrections. If DOT fails to break through resistance and slips back toward $5.09 or lower, these leveraged positions could be wiped out, triggering a cascade of liquidations that might drive the price down to $4.80—or even lower.

Interestingly, the current market shows that long positions are outweighing short ones. This imbalance suggests traders are still favoring an upward move. In fact, if the price pushes slightly higher—toward $5.30 or beyond—it could fuel a round of short liquidations, which would add upward pressure and help the asset move into the $5.50 to $5.75 range.

Despite the bullish technical setup, one factor may undermine DOT’s chances of sustaining a rally: network activity. The number of Active Addresses has declined to 62,100, indicating that on-chain participation remains subdued. Fewer active users typically signal less organic demand, which can make technical rallies harder to sustain. In this context, the lack of growing network usage might limit how far this price run can go without renewed on-chain engagement.

Ultimately, the next few trading sessions will be critical for Polkadot. A confirmed close above $5.30, backed by strong volume and continued investor interest, could validate the bullish outlook and open the door to higher price levels. However, failure to overcome this resistance—or a reversal triggered by liquidation of high-leverage positions—might signal that the market is not yet ready for a full-scale rally.

While sentiment currently leans bullish, traders and investors should remain cautious. The combination of technical momentum, speculative positioning, and weakening on-chain fundamentals makes DOT’s immediate future uncertain. For now, all eyes are on $5.30—Polkadot’s make-or-break level.