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Solana (SOL) has seen a notable rebound after dipping to $190.85 last week, with traders interpreting the drop as a prime buying opportunity. The altcoin surged nearly 12% over three days, reaching $213 on Monday. Market participants are now closely watching October 10, the date when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to finalize its decision on a Solana spot ETF.
The recent price action suggests that both retail and institutional investors are positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated ETF verdict, potentially sending SOL toward new highs around $250 in the short term.
Retail Traders Lead the Charge
Data from Binance and Coinbase indicates that retail-size traders—those holding between 100 and 1,000 SOL—dominated the recent buying momentum. As the broader crypto market and Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a minor sell-off, these traders eagerly snapped up SOL at the lower levels.
Metrics from Hyblock reveal that retail long positions surged during the dip. The True Retail Longs and Shorts Accounts metric climbed to 78.2% at the peak of the sell-off, up from 54.3%, signaling strong buyer conviction among smaller investors.
Additionally, SOL’s aggregate spot orderbook bid-ask ratio (at 10% orderbook depth) rose to 0.47, reflecting a market heavily tilted toward buyers. The anchored 4-hour cumulative volume delta also highlights significant retail buying, with $71.98 million traded in a single 4-hour window, demonstrating voracious demand at the lower price.
Institutional Traders Eye ETF Catalysts
Beyond retail activity, institutional investors are closely monitoring Solana ahead of the SEC decision. Analysts point to aggregate open interest (OI) at centralized exchanges, CME futures OI, and CME futures volumes as critical indicators for potential price acceleration.
Historical data shows that during Solana’s rally to its yearly high of $253 on September 18, CME futures open interest reached $2.12 billion, with futures volume at $1.57 billion. Current figures from September 26 show OI at $1.72 billion and volume at $400 million, indicating room for growth if SOL regains its momentum.
Aggregate open interest on Solana currently remains below the levels seen during the pre-yearly high rally, which had peaked at $3.65 billion, highlighting potential upside if investor activity intensifies ahead of the ETF approval.
Positive US Trading Sessions Strengthen Momentum
Another factor supporting the rebound is SOL’s cumulative returns per session, particularly during U.S. trading hours. Data shows that U.S. session returns have turned positive since Friday, suggesting traders in the region are actively positioning SOL ahead of the ETF verdict.
If SOL continues to attract buying interest during APAC and EU sessions, aligning with U.S. trends, the altcoin could see a broader, more sustainable rally. Such session-wide momentum is critical for sustaining short-term upward pressure on SOL prices.
What Could Drive SOL Toward $250
The primary catalyst for SOL reaching $250 remains the SEC’s pending decision on a Solana spot ETF. A favorable verdict could significantly reduce circulating supply and attract fresh capital from institutional investors seeking regulated exposure to SOL.
Supporting factors include:
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Retail traders aggressively buying dips, creating a strong floor at $190–$192.
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Institutional positioning, as evidenced by futures and open interest growth potential.
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Positive cumulative session returns, particularly in the U.S., signaling renewed market confidence.
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Anticipation of a spot ETF, which could trigger additional inflows from both domestic and international investors.
Short-Term Outlook for Traders
In the coming two weeks, traders are likely to frontrun the SEC decision, potentially driving SOL prices toward the $250 range. Short-term price movements will depend on whether retail enthusiasm continues and institutional activity increases, particularly if CME futures and other centralized exchange OI levels rise toward prior highs.
However, caution remains warranted. Even with strong buying activity, macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments can create volatility. Investors should watch support at $207–$210 and potential resistance around $230–$253, while using the ETF decision as a key market signal.
