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Solana (SOL) has been trading near the $225 level, drawing attention from analysts who believe the token could be preparing for a major rally. According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the fourth quarter of 2025 may present a turning point for Solana as corporate demand and institutional investment align.
Hougan, in a memo to Bitwise clients, argued that Solana could follow the same “recipe” that previously fueled large gains for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). He pointed to the combination of exchange-traded product (ETP) inflows and corporate treasury purchases as the main drivers of significant returns in the crypto market.
The “Recipe” for Crypto Growth
Hougan explained that Bitcoin discovered this growth formula in early 2024, while Ethereum benefited from the same pattern in April 2025. “It’s no surprise the recipe works—it’s simply supply and demand,” Hougan stated. He believes Solana now has all the necessary ingredients for a similar surge.
One of the most anticipated catalysts is the approval of spot Solana ETFs. Multiple issuers—including Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares—have filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). While decisions were delayed until mid-October, many analysts expect that approvals will arrive in early Q4, potentially unleashing a wave of institutional inflows.
Corporate Demand Strengthens Outlook
Beyond ETFs, corporate interest in Solana is also on the rise. Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital recently started Forward Industries, a Solana-focused treasury company with $1.65 billion in cash and stablecoins. The company will buy, stake, and manage SOL to generate returns, creating a steady demand pipeline for the asset.
Notably, Forward Industries appointed Kyle Samani—a long-time Solana advocate—as chairman. Hougan compared Samani’s potential role in promoting Solana to Michael Saylor’s for Bitcoin and Tom Lee’s for Ethereum, emphasizing the importance of strong industry voices in driving investor adoption.
Solana’s Competitive Edge
Hougan also highlighted Solana’s unique fundamentals compared to other blockchains. While Bitcoin is primarily viewed as a store of value and Ethereum as the leader in decentralized finance (DeFi), Solana is positioned as a high-speed programmable blockchain built for stablecoins, tokenized assets, and decentralized applications.
The blockchain recently implemented a major technical upgrade that boosts transaction speeds, further strengthening its appeal as an efficient alternative to Ethereum. Solana also ranks third in stablecoin liquidity among programmable blockchains and fourth in tokenized assets, signaling rapid adoption in these areas.
Hougan argued that Solana’s smaller market capitalization gives it more room to grow compared to BTC and ETH. While Bitcoin sits at around $2.2 trillion and Ethereum at $530 billion, Solana’s market cap is roughly $120.8 billion. This means that even modest capital inflows could have a large impact on SOL’s price.
Scaling Impact of Institutional Inflows
To illustrate this point, Hougan compared Forward Industries’ planned $1.65 billion purchase of SOL to Bitcoin. Adjusted for relative market cap, the purchase is equivalent to a $33 billion inflow into BTC. This kind of scaled impact could fuel a powerful rally if institutional demand continues to grow.
That said, Hougan also cautioned that Solana’s higher annual inflation rate of 4.3% may slightly offset some of these gains. By comparison, Bitcoin and Ethereum have much lower annual inflation rates of 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. Even so, he described the setup as “attractive” and suggested that Solana’s demand drivers outweigh its inflation concerns.
Outlook: Q4 Could Be Pivotal for Solana
With ETF approvals pending, corporate treasuries securing billions to buy and stake SOL, and growing adoption in DeFi and tokenized asset markets, Solana appears poised for what Hougan called an “epic” end-of-year rally.
If demand materializes as expected, Solana could follow the same trajectory as Bitcoin and Ethereum, where institutional inflows reshaped the market landscape. At current levels, SOL’s smaller size relative to BTC and ETH means that even incremental institutional adoption could magnify price moves.
Investors now look to mid-October, when the SEC is scheduled to review multiple spot Solana ETF applications. Approval could mark a historic turning point, setting the stage for Solana’s next major run.
