Solana (SOL) has entered a phase of heightened volatility and uncertainty, triggered by diverging whale activity and major shifts in dormant token movements. With SOL trading just below crucial technical levels, the altcoin’s path toward the $160 mark is looking increasingly uncertain—perhaps even at risk of reversal.

Whale Behavior Reflects Divided Sentiment

Over the past 24 hours, Solana whales sent mixed signals to the market. On one hand, a large investor staked 61,838 SOL, a move generally interpreted as bullish and supportive of long-term conviction. On the other hand, another whale unstaked and sold 44,539 SOL, pocketing a sizable $6.8 million in the process.

This contradiction underscores a fundamental divide among large holders. Some are choosing to lock in profits following SOL’s recent uptrend, while others are doubling down, hoping for more upside. Such divergence introduces uncertainty into the market, where the actions of influential players often set the tone for smaller investors.

Dormant SOL Tokens Come to Life

Alongside these whale movements, Solana’s network recorded its third-highest Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) spike of 2025, totaling 3.55 billion. This indicator measures the activity of previously dormant coins, and a spike suggests that long-inactive holders are now moving their tokens.

Historically, this kind of activity implies a shift in strategy—often signaling profit-taking or a significant portfolio reshuffle. If these long-held tokens find their way to exchanges, it could increase selling pressure and potentially push prices lower.

Bullish Crowd Could Be Overextended

Retail traders appear heavily bullish, and that could be a problem. Data from Binance indicates that 75.89% of traders are holding long positions, with a long/short ratio of 3.15. While this points to overwhelming bullish sentiment, it can also signal market overconfidence.

Recent liquidation data backs this up. Shorts have been wiped out with $1.73 million in losses, compared to just $96,000 for longs. This imbalance hints at a possible short squeeze having taken place—pushing prices up temporarily—but also suggests vulnerability to a quick reversal if bullish momentum fades.

Technical Indicators Point to Weakness

Despite a brief recovery, SOL is trading at $148.71, still below its 9-day and 21-day moving averages, which stand at $154.91 and $165.31, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 36.84, just above the oversold zone, confirming that trend strength is weakening.

More concerning is the bearish crossover on the moving averages. Unless buyers can push the price back above these averages, the current technical structure favors sellers. The momentum needed for a sustained breakout above $155 appears lacking under present conditions.

Adding to the uncertainty, Open Interest in Solana futures has fallen by 4.26%, dropping to $380.16 million. This suggests a reduction in leveraged positions, indicating that traders may be pulling back amid the mixed signals.

The $148–$155 Resistance Zone Could Decide the Outcome

A critical resistance zone between $148 and $155 has emerged, according to the Binance Liquidation Heatmap. This region is filled with liquidation clusters, creating a dense wall of trapped liquidity. Prices have already shown hesitation around these levels, and unless Solana manages a clean breakout, bullish momentum could stall.

If SOL manages to breach this resistance band, it could trigger rapid gains, potentially reigniting hopes for a run toward $160. But failure to break through might cause cascading liquidations of overleveraged long positions, adding downward pressure.

Conclusion: Bullish Intent Meets Technical Caution

Solana’s short-term outlook remains conflicted. On-chain data like whale staking and dormant token movement suggest that big players are repositioning. However, the technical landscape—marked by falling Open Interest, bearish indicators, and tough resistance—warns that the path to $160 is far from guaranteed.

Traders should keep a close eye on the $155 level. A breakout could be the start of the next leg up. But if SOL fails to break above this threshold, the market may witness a deeper pullback fueled by liquidations and shaken confidence.

For now, Solana is in a delicate balance—between bullish hopes and bearish realities.