Solana (SOL) has come under renewed pressure after a significant whale transaction triggered concerns about the token’s short-term stability. Despite the sell-off, retail traders are showing confidence, and futures activity points to a possible recovery—if broader sentiment holds.

Whale Sells $35 Million in SOL After Unstaking 1 Million Tokens

In the past nine days, a large Solana holder unstaked 1 million SOL tokens—worth an estimated $139 million. Since then, the same wallet has sold 240,000 SOL, equivalent to roughly $35 million, according to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain.

This move has raised eyebrows in the crypto community, especially as it followed a failed breakout attempt near the $154 level. The price has since pulled back to around $149 at the time of writing, reflecting short-term selling pressure and a loss of bullish momentum.

While it’s not unusual for whales to take profits after rallies, the timing and scale of the recent sell-off have led some traders to question whether institutional confidence in Solana is beginning to fade.

Spot Market Data Suggests Whale Activity Is Drying Up

Further analysis from CryptoQuant reveals a sharp decline in Solana’s Spot Average Order Size, which tracks the typical volume per trade on spot markets. Larger orders—often attributed to whales—have virtually disappeared in recent days, indicating a clear reduction in big-money interest.

This lack of institutional participation could suggest that whales are either pausing their activity or have become cautious amid market uncertainty. For retail traders, this could signal short-term volatility ahead.

Retail Traders Are Accumulating, Netflow Turns Negative

Interestingly, retail sentiment appears to be moving in the opposite direction. Data from CoinGlass shows that Solana’s Netflow has dropped to -$19.69 million. Negative Netflow occurs when more tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, which is often interpreted as a sign of accumulation.

Retail investors withdrawing SOL into private wallets may suggest growing conviction that the asset will recover and trend higher in the near term.

Historically, periods of negative Netflow and decreasing sell-side pressure have often preceded upward movements, especially when paired with rising market engagement.

Futures Market Rebounds With Perps Volume Surging

Further adding to the picture, perpetual futures trading volume for Solana has bounced back after a four-day slump. At press time, the volume has climbed to $484 million, reflecting increased activity from speculators.

A rising perps volume is typically associated with higher market interest and directional bets, whether long or short. In this case, the increase indicates that traders are preparing for potential volatility ahead, and are positioning accordingly.

This spike could play a significant role in near-term price movements, especially if it coincides with increased spot demand or significant liquidations.

Market Outlook: Correction or Early Reversal?

Despite recent whale selling, analysts note that there’s no widespread panic among large holders. According to AMBCrypto, the recent sales appear to be part of a larger trend of rotation and profit-taking, rather than a mass exit.

Many institutional wallets are reportedly on hold, watching how the market unfolds. This pause may indicate that large holders are waiting for confirmation of market direction before making further moves.

Solana’s recent dip below $154 seems to reflect a healthy correction rather than a collapse. If retail demand continues to build, and speculative interest holds, SOL may retest the $154 resistance level in the coming sessions. A successful breakout could push the price toward $159.

What to Watch in the Coming Days

As of now, the key support zone lies at $149. If this level holds, and accumulation continues, Solana could stage a rebound. However, if retail sentiment weakens and selling pressure resumes, a move below $149 could open the door to a deeper pullback toward $140.

Market watchers should monitor Netflow trends, futures volume, and any additional whale movements to gauge the next direction. For now, Solana remains at a crossroads, with retail strength offering a potential buffer against institutional outflows.