Solana (SOL), one of the top-performing altcoins of recent years, is facing heightened volatility as panic selling spreads among long-term holders. In just 24 hours, SOL has seen a steep decline, falling by over 11%, with more than $3.55 billion worth of tokens suddenly moved—signaling a potential crisis for the asset. However, despite the sell-off, strong bullish signals from both spot and derivatives markets suggest that all may not be lost for Solana just yet.

Long-Term Holders Trigger Third-Largest Sell-Off Event

The latest market turmoil is being driven largely by long-term SOL holders, many of whom have begun to liquidate their positions after months or even years of holding. This behavior is captured by the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, a blockchain indicator that tracks when dormant tokens are moved. The CDD spike this week marks the third-largest such event for Solana, with only two previous dates—February 26 and March 3—seeing greater value moved.

When long-term holders start selling in such large volumes, it typically signals a lack of confidence in short- to mid-term performance. In this case, $3.55 billion worth of SOL moved, suggesting many seasoned investors have decided it’s time to exit. Yet surprisingly, despite the size of the transfers, Solana’s price hasn’t crashed as severely as expected.

Why the Price Drop Wasn’t Worse

Although the panic selling would typically trigger a major plunge, several factors seem to have cushioned the blow. One of the most notable is ongoing bullish behavior in the spot market. Exchange netflows, which measure the movement of tokens in and out of trading platforms, have shown a considerable outflow of SOL—a strong sign that more investors are choosing to move their coins into private wallets instead of selling.

This behavior suggests that many investors are now accumulating SOL rather than offloading it, indicating a long-term bullish outlook despite recent panic.

In the past 48 hours alone, over $12 million worth of SOL has been purchased and transferred to private wallets. In total, this week has seen nearly $72 million in net accumulation, highlighting growing confidence among certain groups of buyers.

Derivatives Market Shows Optimism Too

The derivative market is also showing signs of optimism. The Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate has climbed into positive territory, currently standing at 0.0060%, which means that traders are increasingly taking long positions on SOL. In essence, this indicates that the majority of derivative traders are betting that Solana’s price will rise in the near future.

This bullish positioning in the derivatives market often acts as a leading indicator, especially when it aligns with positive movement in the spot market.

Technical Indicators Hint at a Potential Rally

From a technical perspective, Solana’s recent price action could be setting the stage for a rebound. The Bollinger Band Indicator, which identifies potential reversal points, shows that SOL has touched the lower band—a level that historically precedes a rally.

In fact, the last time Solana hit this point on the Bollinger Band, it triggered a 79% rally, pushing prices significantly higher. If this pattern repeats, analysts believe that SOL could return to the $180–$200 range in the near future.

What’s Next for Solana?

Despite the mass exodus by long-term holders, Solana’s fundamentals and technical indicators are showing resilience. Accumulation is growing, bullish sentiment is rising in both the spot and derivatives markets, and price indicators point to the possibility of a strong recovery. While it’s too early to call it a confirmed comeback, the conditions appear to be forming for a potential turnaround.

For now, investors will be closely watching Solana’s ability to hold its current support levels. If the token can maintain momentum and break through resistance, it could shift the current bearish narrative into a bullish one.