Stellar (XLM) has seen impressive gains recently, rising 10% in the past 24 hours and more than 25% in the past 30 days. However, despite these encouraging signs, the cryptocurrency remains below the crucial $0.30 mark, a level it has struggled to reclaim since March 2025. This key psychological barrier has proven difficult to break, even as bullish momentum continues to build.

Stellar’s most recent surge has garnered significant attention, with traders and investors closely monitoring the asset’s price action. The latest bullish signals, including a sharp increase in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a positive shift in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), and the potential formation of a golden cross, are fueling expectations that a breakout may be imminent. But for this to happen, XLM must first overcome the resistance at the $0.279 level and then target the long-awaited $0.30.

RSI Surges: Is XLM Gearing Up for a Breakout?

One of the most noteworthy technical developments is the sudden surge in XLM’s RSI, which has jumped from 31.47 to 62.21 in just two days. The RSI is a key indicator that traders use to measure the speed and change of price movements. A significant rise in RSI indicates increasing buying momentum and suggests that XLM may be in the process of recovering from oversold conditions.

An RSI reading between 50 and 70 typically signals growing bullish sentiment, and with XLM now sitting at 62.21, it suggests that the token is gaining strength. This opens the door to potential further upside, especially if buyers continue to show interest in the asset. However, traders must remain cautious as the RSI approaches overbought territory, typically indicated by readings above 70.

Historically, when XLM has moved into this range, a pullback has often followed. Therefore, while the price action is promising, traders should be vigilant for signs of exhaustion in the coming days, as the token may face a period of consolidation or correction once the RSI hits overbought levels.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Positive Shift, But Cautious Buying Pressure

Another positive sign for Stellar comes from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which is currently sitting at 0.04, up from -0.32 just a few days ago. The CMF is a volume-weighted indicator that helps to gauge the buying and selling pressure on an asset. When the CMF is above zero, it suggests that buying pressure is outpacing selling pressure, signaling accumulation. The recent positive shift in CMF reflects a short-term uptick in buying activity.

However, despite the positive momentum, the CMF is still far from confirming a strong bullish trend. A reading above 0.10 is generally considered an indication of significant accumulation, but XLM’s CMF has not broken above this threshold since late April 2025. This suggests that while there is some growing buying pressure, it is not yet strong enough to suggest sustained bullish conviction. For XLM to push higher, the CMF would likely need to rise further and stay above the 0.10 level, confirming that investors are committing capital in a more consistent manner.

Golden Cross: Is XLM Primed for a Breakout?

XLM’s price action is also showing signs of a potential golden cross, a bullish chart pattern that occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. This is a strong signal that suggests upward momentum may be building, as it typically signals the end of a bearish phase and the beginning of a bullish one.

Currently, XLM is trading within a narrow range, with resistance at $0.279 and support at $0.267. A breakout above the $0.279 level would likely open the door for a rally toward the $0.30 resistance, which has been a persistent hurdle since early March. If bullish momentum continues, XLM could potentially target higher levels at $0.349 and $0.375. Further upside could even push the price toward $0.443 if the market remains bullish.

However, if XLM fails to break through the $0.279 resistance, it may retest the $0.267 support level. A breakdown below this level would expose XLM to further downside risks, with key support levels at $0.25, $0.239, and $0.230.

Supply Concentration and Market Volatility

Beyond the technical indicators, another concern for XLM is the concentration of supply among a few large wallets. According to recent data, the top 10 XLM holders control nearly 80% of the circulating supply, which raises concerns about potential market volatility. If large holders decide to liquidate their positions, it could lead to significant price swings, especially if there is insufficient buying pressure to counteract the selling.

Binance’s growing XLM balance also highlights the potential risks associated with supply concentration. The exchange’s XLM holdings have increased from 180 million to over 1 billion since late 2023, further emphasizing the risk of price manipulation by large players.

Despite these concerns, adoption for Stellar is on the rise. The tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market has surged by 84% in 2025, with institutions like Franklin Templeton and Circle driving over $500 million in on-chain value. This growing adoption reflects the continued use case development for Stellar’s network, helping to support the long-term outlook for XLM.

Conclusion

Stellar (XLM) has shown promising short-term technical signals, including a rise in RSI, a positive shift in CMF, and the potential formation of a golden cross. However, the cryptocurrency faces tough resistance at the $0.279 level and needs to see sustained buying pressure to break through this barrier. While the market shows signs of increased adoption, the concentration of XLM supply in a few large wallets could lead to volatility if these holders choose to sell. Nonetheless, Stellar’s ongoing development and adoption suggest a positive long-term outlook, even if short-term price action remains uncertain. Traders should watch for further movement above the $0.279 level to confirm a breakout, while also being mindful of potential pullbacks.