Home Altcoins News SUI Price Faces Breakdown as $123M Token Unlock Threatens 38% Crash Below $2

SUI Price Faces Breakdown as $123M Token Unlock Threatens 38% Crash Below $2

SUI support levels

Sui (SUI), one of the top-performing altcoins in the first half of 2025, is now on the brink of a sharp decline. After a 1.8% gain today, SUI is trading at $2.83 with 24-hour trading volumes surging 37% to $760 million. However, despite rising interest, the altcoin’s technical structure is flashing red, and a $123 million token unlock looming this week could send prices below the psychological $2 mark.

Technical indicators and price structures on the daily chart are raising serious alarms for traders and investors alike. An inverse cup and handle pattern has formed—a rare bearish reversal setup that historically signals a steep breakdown when followed by weak momentum.

Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern Suggests 38% Crash

The daily chart of SUI shows a clearly formed inverse cup and handle pattern, a formation that tends to precede downward continuation when bullish momentum stalls. The “cup” portion reflects a rounded top, while the “handle” mimics a mild recovery that ultimately fails to attract new buyers.

If this pattern plays out, the projected decline equals the depth of the cup, with a drop from the $2.66 support zone pointing to a potential 38% decline. That could drag the SUI price as low as $1.65, marking a new yearly low. A breakdown below the $2.66 level will likely confirm this move, opening the door to sustained bearish action.

Bearish Signals Stack Up: Death Cross, Weak MFI

Adding to the bearish setup is the appearance of a “death cross”—a technical condition where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This development is typically viewed as a sign of weakening long-term strength.

Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI), a momentum oscillator used to measure buying and selling pressure, is struggling to break above the key 50-level. This rejection signals a lack of strong buying interest, further validating the bearish narrative. Without a meaningful surge in demand, SUI’s recent gains could quickly reverse.

$123 Million Token Unlock Fuels Bearish Expectations

Beyond technicals, SUI is facing another challenge: token unlocks. According to data from Tokenomist, more than 44 million SUI tokens—worth over $123 million at current prices—are set to be unlocked over the next seven days.

While not all of these tokens are expected to hit the market immediately, even a portion being sold could add immense downward pressure. Of the total, $35 million worth will go to the community reserve and is unlikely to be sold. Similarly, $5.81 million going to the Mysten Labs Treasury and $54 million for Series B funding may remain untouched.

However, roughly 9.98 million tokens, valued at around $28 million, are set to be distributed to early contributors. These recipients could be inclined to take profits, especially amid growing concerns over the technical outlook. If these tokens make their way to exchanges, the SUI price may experience rapid declines as selling intensifies.

Psychological Support at $2 Under Threat

The $2 level has become a psychological barrier for SUI traders, and with technical patterns and fundamental factors aligning, a breakdown seems increasingly probable. If support at $2.66 fails, the $2.00 mark becomes the next key test. A drop below this threshold could accelerate the downtrend, with $1.65 acting as the next significant support level.

This bearish scenario is further reinforced by the lack of bullish conviction. While trading volume has risen, it appears to be driven more by short-term speculation than genuine accumulation. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has flattened, reflecting the absence of sustained buying pressure.

Grayscale Interest Fails to Sustain Optimism

Earlier in the quarter, Grayscale added SUI to its Q3 crypto asset list, a move that triggered optimism among investors. However, that enthusiasm is now fading as market participants turn their attention to the near-term risks. Despite broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market—fueled by macro events and institutional inflows—SUI’s unique setup makes it vulnerable to a localized correction.

The selling pressure from unlocks, combined with bearish technicals and a lack of organic demand, paints a cautious picture for the altcoin in the coming week.

What Traders Should Watch Next

For now, traders and analysts are closely monitoring three key factors:

  • Support at $2.66: A close below this level on daily candles could confirm the bearish breakdown.

  • Token Unlock Events: Watch exchange inflows of unlocked tokens, especially from early contributors.

  • Broader Market Sentiment: Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements may also influence SUI’s direction.

If SUI manages to hold above $2.66 and bullish momentum returns, a recovery toward $3 is possible. But unless strong buying volume enters the market and key resistance levels are cleared, the odds favor a move downward.

Final Thoughts

SUI is at a pivotal moment. The technical setup, combined with a large token unlock, creates a high-risk environment. While the token has delivered impressive returns in the past, the coming days could test investor resolve. A break below $2 would likely confirm a deeper retracement, possibly targeting $1.65 before any signs of stabilization emerge.

For now, traders may want to proceed with caution and closely follow token movement, volume shifts, and any reaction around the $2.66 and $2.00 levels.

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Sakamoto Nashi

Nashi Sakamoto, a dedicated crypto journalist from the Virgin Islands, brings expert analysis and insight into the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. Appreciate the work? Send a tip to: 0x4C6D67705aF449f0C0102D4C7C693ad4A64926e9

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