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Toncoin is trading in a bullish setup as it presses against the critical $3.55–$3.65 resistance zone. A decisive breakout could open the way for a rally toward $3.75–$4.00, marking a potential continuation of the asset’s August recovery.
Toncoin Holds Above All Major EMAs
At the time of writing, Toncoin (TON) trades at $3.556 within a rising channel on the 4-hour chart. All major exponential moving averages (EMAs) — the 20-EMA ($3.459), 50-EMA ($3.414), 100-EMA ($3.379), and 200-EMA ($3.297) — are sloping upward.
This alignment is a hallmark of bullish momentum, providing a layered support structure. Any dips into the $3.297–$3.459 range are likely to attract buyers, reinforcing the current uptrend.
$3.55–$3.65 Resistance: The Breakout Barrier
The $3.55–$3.65 range has acted as a firm ceiling since late July, producing multiple rejection wicks near the upper channel boundary. A breakout above $3.65 could unlock the $3.75–$3.80 zone, with $4.00 as the next major target if momentum holds.
Technical indicators support this bullish view: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 63.20, comfortably above its signal line at 58.67 without being overbought, suggesting there’s room for further upside.
Daily Chart: Liquidity and Supply Zones
On the daily timeframe, Toncoin is approaching a “strong high” liquidity area near $3.64 — a level where breakout orders often cluster. Since June, the chart has printed higher lows, along with Change-of-Character (CHoCH) and Break-of-Structure (BOS) patterns, both of which point to sustained buying pressure.
Daily resistance mirrors the lower timeframe levels at $3.55–$3.75. Beyond $4.00 lies a supply zone extending toward $5.50, which could come into play if the bullish trend accelerates.
Key Support Levels
The strongest support sits between $2.90–$3.00, aligning with the 200-day EMA and a previously tested demand zone. As long as Toncoin closes daily candles above $3.30, the bullish structure remains intact.
A break below $3.00, however, would indicate structural weakness and could trigger a decline toward $2.70.
On-Chain Flows Suggest Accumulation
On-chain data from August 14 revealed a net outflow of -$3.33 million while TON traded at $3.565. Outflows typically indicate accumulation, as assets are moved off exchanges into private wallets, reducing available supply.
Recent weeks have leaned toward net outflows, bolstering the bullish case. In contrast, historical inflow spikes earlier this year have often aligned with short-term tops, so sustained outflows could be a positive signal for continued upside.
Short-Term Scenarios
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Bullish Breakout: A clean break above $3.65 with strong trading volume could propel Toncoin to $3.75 and possibly $4.00–$4.20. A daily close above $3.75 would shift the medium-term outlook toward higher targets like $5.00–$5.50.
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Rejection at Resistance: Failure to breach $3.65 may lead to a pullback toward the mid-channel support at $3.48 or the 20-EMA at $3.459. Deeper retracements could test the 50-EMA at $3.414 or the 100-EMA at $3.379.
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Bearish Reversal: Only a decisive break below $3.30 would flip the short-term bias to bearish, potentially sending price back to the $3.00 or $2.70 levels.
Outlook: Bulls Maintain Control
Toncoin’s ability to reclaim all major EMAs, sustain a rising channel, and hold near multi-week resistance underscores strong market interest. The combination of supportive technicals, favorable on-chain flows, and steady RSI momentum gives bulls a clear edge heading into the second half of August.
If $3.65 falls, traders may see a quick push toward $3.75 and potentially the psychologically significant $4.00 mark. Conversely, repeated rejections at this level would likely keep TON range-bound between $3.30 and $3.65 until fresh catalysts emerge.
