Toncoin (TON), the cryptocurrency native to the Telegram-backed blockchain, has experienced a 10% drop in price over the past 30 days. The price, which peaked at $5.54, has since fallen to around $4.76. Despite these losses, recent on-chain analysis suggests that Toncoin might be at a turning point, with strong support levels in place that could prevent further declines.

Strong Support Levels Indicate Potential for Price Recovery

One of the key factors providing hope for Toncoin holders is the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicator. This on-chain tool helps traders understand the buying and selling pressure at different price levels. It divides addresses into three categories: those that are “in the money” (profitable at current price), “out of the money” (facing losses), and those at the breakeven point.

For Toncoin, a significant cluster of addresses—around 2.44 million—purchased approximately 600 million TON tokens between $4.69 and $4.84, and are currently in profit. This suggests that these addresses are likely to act as support if the price approaches this range again. As long as buying pressure stays strong, this could act as a buffer, preventing further downward movement.

Interestingly, this cluster of profitable addresses exceeds the volume of holders who are currently facing losses, particularly those who bought in the $4.84 to $5.58 price range. If buying pressure intensifies, Toncoin could rally to the next resistance level around $5.58.

Rising Buying Pressure: Money Flow Index Supports Recovery

Another positive indicator for Toncoin is the Money Flow Index (MFI), a technical indicator that tracks the flow of money into and out of an asset. The MFI recently crossed above the critical 50.00 mark, signaling that buying pressure is increasing. This shift suggests that more investors are accumulating Toncoin, which could lead to a potential price increase in the near term.

As of now, the MFI trend indicates stronger buying interest in Toncoin, which could help support a price bounce from its current levels. If the buying momentum continues to rise, TON might see a significant recovery, potentially reaching the $5.58 mark in the short term.

Toncoin Price Prediction: Could it Hit $5.78?

Looking at the broader trend, Toncoin bulls have formed a strong support at $4.67, which has proven to be a critical level for the cryptocurrency in the past. In fact, this level played a significant role in Toncoin’s 24% rally in September 2024, helping it recover from losses and peak at $5.80.

If history repeats itself, Toncoin could again bounce off this support level and see a price surge. Should this recovery take place, Toncoin could rise toward the $5.78 level in the near future, marking a potential $1.02 increase from its current value of $4.76.

Bearish Risks: What Could Derail the Recovery?

While the signs are currently favorable for Toncoin, there are still risks that could undermine the recovery scenario. If the support at $4.76 fails to hold, and bearish pressure takes over, Toncoin’s price might drop further. A breakdown below the key support could invalidate the bullish scenario and cause TON to decline toward the next support zone at $4.45.

Given the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, it’s important for investors to remain cautious and keep an eye on market trends and indicators to anticipate any sudden changes in sentiment.

Conclusion: Toncoin Could See a Bounce, But Risks Remain

While Toncoin (TON) has faced a challenging 10% drop in the last month, several on-chain indicators and technical analysis suggest that the cryptocurrency could avoid a deeper correction. With established support at $4.67 and rising buying pressure indicated by the Money Flow Index, Toncoin might be on the verge of a recovery, potentially reaching as high as $5.78.

However, like all cryptocurrencies, Toncoin remains susceptible to market fluctuations. Investors should keep a close watch on key support and resistance levels, as well as market sentiment, to gauge the potential for future price movements.