Toncoin (TON) is showing strong signs of accumulation and technical resilience, trading around $2.89 as it holds above a key support level of $2.83. Despite recent volatility in the broader crypto market, TON continues to attract bullish attention, fueled by data from Glassnode indicating significant whale activity.

Whale Accumulation Supports Bullish Sentiment

Recent on-chain data reveals a remarkable 2.98 billion TON tokens clustered within four major price ranges between $2.00 and $4.00. This concentration of holdings signals that large investors are strategically accumulating TON in anticipation of future price appreciation.

The most notable concentration appears in the $2.91 to $2.98 range, where 863 million TON tokens are reportedly held by a single entity. This wallet has shown a pattern of disciplined accumulation over time, with the tokens remaining untouched across multiple market cycles. Such long-term holding behavior is typically seen as a bullish indicator, especially when combined with technical support zones.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Toncoin has maintained its footing above $2.83, a critical support level that has seen repeated demand in recent weeks. The current price zone between $2.83 and $2.89 has acted as a buffer during broader market fluctuations, suggesting that buyers are stepping in consistently at these levels.

From a technical perspective, the asset is consolidating just below key moving averages. The 20, 50, 100, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are all positioned above the current price, indicating a potential breakout setup. A decisive move above $3.07, which aligns with the 200-day SMA, could confirm a trend reversal and signal a new bullish phase.

Breakout Could Target $3.90 and Beyond

Traders are closely watching the $3.00 level as the immediate breakout point. If TON clears this threshold, price momentum could build toward higher resistance zones at $3.39, $3.60, and eventually $3.90.

Beyond these, historical resistance levels lie at $4.54, $5.39, and $5.83, which previously acted as strong rejection points. A rally toward $4.00 would represent a 37% gain from current price levels, making Toncoin one of the more compelling short-to-mid-term opportunities in the altcoin market.

On-Chain Data Backs the Bull Case

Glassnode’s analysis of wallet distribution reinforces the bullish outlook for Toncoin. In addition to the 863 million TON held in the $2.91–$2.98 range, other major clusters include:

• 1.32 billion TON between $2.01 and $2.05

• 535 million TON between $2.18 and $2.22

• 261 million TON at the upper band of $3.83 to $3.87

These clusters now serve as support and resistance zones, depending on future price direction. The size and positioning of these holdings suggest that both retail and institutional investors are betting on a long-term uptrend.

Technical Indicators Suggest Growing Strength

Toncoin’s price action is beginning to align with traditional technical indicators that often signal breakout potential. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD are gradually rising, reflecting growing buying momentum.

Volume trends will be a key factor to monitor. A spike in trading volume, especially near the $3.00 resistance level, could validate a breakout and trigger broader interest among traders and investors.

Meanwhile, the convergence of moving averages below the $3.10 region creates a classic setup for a bullish crossover, a pattern often followed by price surges.

Market Outlook: Bullish Bias Above $2.83

TON’s ability to hold the line at $2.83 while whales continue to accumulate indicates that the asset is gearing up for a significant move. As long as TON remains above this support and breaks above $3.07, momentum could accelerate rapidly.

The consolidation pattern currently forming is common before major directional moves. If buyers maintain control, the path to $4.00 and beyond becomes increasingly realistic.

However, investors should remain cautious of fakeouts and monitor both on-chain metrics and broader market sentiment for confirmation. A sustained move above the 200 SMA with rising volume would be a key bullish confirmation.