Toncoin (TON) has witnessed a notable increase in whale accumulation even as a significant portion of its holders remain in the red. This intriguing contrast between strong whale activity and widespread unrealized losses sets the stage for a potential breakout, creating a fascinating dynamic within the market.

Since 2021, the top 100 whale addresses on the Toncoin network have steadily increased their holdings, reflecting strong confidence in the asset’s long-term potential. These influential investors appear to be positioning themselves ahead of a likely price upswing. Their sustained accumulation serves as a key indicator that large stakeholders anticipate renewed growth in TON’s value. Consequently, monitoring these whale wallets is essential for understanding forthcoming shifts in liquidity, volatility, and overall market sentiment.

At the same time, data from IntoTheBlock reveals that 71.28% of Toncoin holders are currently profitable, while about 11.52% are underwater, limiting immediate selling pressure. Many holders acquired TON below the $3.05 level, which now acts as a solid support zone. However, resistance may emerge near higher price clusters ranging between $5 and $6, where some investors might exit positions to recover losses or take profits. This suggests that price movement in this range could see increased volatility as selling pressure intensifies.

Toncoin’s transaction activity is also expanding across a broad range of investors, from retail to institutional levels. Large transactions between $1 million and $10 million surged nearly 80%, while those exceeding $10 million increased by around 50%. Mid-tier transactions, particularly those between $10,000 and $100,000, have also grown considerably. This diversification in user engagement indicates growing market participation and interest in TON, supporting the notion of an expanding and more mature ecosystem.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market for TON has experienced a marked rise. Volume increased by nearly 15% to reach $174.86 million, while open interest rose 4.28% to $230.72 million. These increases highlight renewed speculative enthusiasm, likely driven by tightening price structures and ongoing whale accumulation. With greater leverage exposure, market volatility is expected to intensify, potentially resulting in sharper price swings.

Notably, the Binance liquidation heatmap shows significant short liquidation clusters around the $3.31 and $3.50 resistance levels. Should TON’s price advance past these points, it could trigger a short squeeze, leading to rapid buying pressure and further upward momentum. On the other hand, long liquidations remain minimal below $3.10, which provides a relatively stable zone for bullish investors to operate without immediate risk of forced selling.

Toncoin’s price has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, oscillating between a resistance of $3.505 and support at $3.097. Historically, such consolidation patterns often precede strong breakouts, especially when supported by increased whale activity and growing derivatives volume. If TON breaks above the $3.505 resistance with solid volume, it could set its sights on the $4.72 level. Conversely, a drop below the $3.097 support might push the price down toward $2.28, signaling a potential bearish move.

In conclusion, despite the fact that a large percentage of holders are still at a loss, the ongoing whale accumulation combined with rising speculative interest favors a bullish breakout over a selloff. If the bulls maintain momentum and successfully flip the $3.50 resistance into support, Toncoin could experience a sharp rally. However, failure to break through this key level might result in short-term pullbacks or consolidation.

Overall, current indicators suggest that whales are preparing for an upside continuation rather than exiting their positions. This positioning implies optimism about Toncoin’s near-term prospects and hints at a potentially significant upward move in the weeks ahead. Investors and traders will be watching closely to see if TON can break free from its consolidation phase and capitalize on this momentum.