Uniswap (UNI) is currently at a crucial juncture in its price action, and whether it will see a significant breakout or a further decline largely depends on its ability to maintain a key support level. At the time of writing, UNI is trading near the $9.60 mark, having dropped 2.25% in the last 24 hours. Despite this decline, trading volume has surged by 70%, suggesting strong participation from both traders and investors. The key question is whether UNI can hold above the $9.55 support level, which could determine whether the price will rise or fall in the near future.

Support Level Critical for Breakout

Uniswap’s price action has recently formed an ascending triangle pattern, and it is currently being supported by an important trendline. This trendline coincides with the $9.55 level, making it a critical price point for UNI. If the token manages to hold above this support level, there is a strong possibility that it could rally by 30%, reaching the $12.60 level. On the other hand, if the price falls below $9.45 and closes a four-hour candle under that threshold, UNI could face a decline of 15%, potentially dropping to $8.15.

This makes the $9.55 level a make-or-break point for UNI’s short-term future. The behavior of traders and investors, particularly in the face of market uncertainty, will play a significant role in determining which direction the price will move.

Leverage and Liquidation Map

The current leverage situation provides more insight into how the market might react to price movements. Data from Coinglass shows that traders holding long positions at the $9.57 level are heavily over-leveraged, with $5.4 million worth of long positions. Conversely, short positions are concentrated around the $9.73 level, where traders have accumulated $1.15 million in short positions. These over-leveraged positions suggest that any significant price movement could trigger forced liquidations.

If UNI moves upward, the long positions could face liquidation, pushing the price higher as more buyers enter the market. Alternatively, if the price falls, the short positions may be liquidated, providing further downside pressure. This dynamic highlights how critical it is for Uniswap to maintain support above $9.55, as the risk of a liquidation cascade could amplify price movement in either direction.

On-Chain Metrics and Market Sentiment

On-chain metrics also provide insights into the current market sentiment surrounding Uniswap. Data from Coinglass shows that exchanges have recorded an outflow of $3.10 million worth of UNI tokens in the past 48 hours. Exchange outflows are generally seen as a bullish sign, indicating that investors are accumulating UNI in anticipation of future price increases. This outflow suggests that there is growing confidence in the asset, which could help push the price higher if the support level holds.

Moreover, despite recent price declines, the strong participation of traders and investors has kept the asset active. This indicates that the market may be positioning itself for a potential upward move, especially if UNI can hold above its crucial support levels.

What’s Next for Uniswap?

Uniswap’s price action is at a pivotal moment. If UNI can hold the $9.55 support level and continue its upward trajectory, the token could see a 30% rally toward $12.60. However, failure to maintain this level could lead to a 15% decline, bringing the price closer to $8.15.

Traders should keep a close eye on these key price levels, as the balance between long and short positions, combined with on-chain data, will likely determine UNI’s next major price movement. In this volatile market, holding the $9.55 support level is critical for any potential bullish continuation.