Investment firm VanEck has projected that Bitcoin could eventually capture half of gold’s $26 trillion market capitalization, which would value the leading cryptocurrency at roughly $644,000 per coin. However, analysts caution that reaching such a valuation may take years of gradual growth rather than an explosive rally.

Bitcoin’s Market Strength Continues

VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Mathew Sigel, outlined the firm’s bullish outlook in a post on X (formerly Twitter), noting that Bitcoin’s current trajectory mirrors many of gold’s historical investment characteristics. “At today’s record gold price, that implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per Bitcoin,” Sigel said, referencing the scenario in which BTC captures half of gold’s market value.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization currently stands at $2.48 trillion, up more than 12% in the past month, according to CoinGecko. The price recently hit a new record high of $126,080, before consolidating slightly around $124,529.

Analysts Call for Patience

Market experts agree that VanEck’s projection is theoretically achievable, but the timeline may extend beyond the current cycle. Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, told Decrypt that Bitcoin would need a 5.6x price increase to reach half of gold’s market cap.

“Given Bitcoin’s shift to stable, absolute dollar gains of $50,000 to $60,000 per cycle rather than exponential surges, this target is more realistic over five to ten years,” Lim said. He added that Bitcoin’s maturity and growing institutional adoption are changing its growth dynamics from speculative rallies to steady, long-term appreciation.

Comparing Bitcoin and Gold

The comparison between Bitcoin and gold has long been central to the digital asset narrative. Both are considered stores of value that hedge against inflation and currency debasement. According to TradingView, gold has outperformed Bitcoin in the short term, rising 49% year-to-date, including a 17% gain in Q3 2025. In contrast, Bitcoin gained 31% over the same period.

Despite this, Bitcoin continues to gain institutional traction. “JPMorgan has already dubbed gold and Bitcoin the ‘debasement trade,’ pairing them together is the first step,” said Ryan McMillin, Chief Investment Officer at Merkle Tree Capital. “Reaching half of gold’s market cap—and eventually parity—makes sense in that framework.”

VanEck’s Long-Term Vision

VanEck’s projection builds on a set of long-term assumptions. In a July 2024 blog post, the firm outlined scenarios in which Bitcoin becomes an integral part of the global financial system by 2050. The report suggested that Bitcoin could facilitate 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic transactions, leading central banks to hold 2.5% of their assets in BTC.

Applying a velocity-of-money model, VanEck calculated that Bitcoin could reach a market cap of $61 trillion, implying a price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050. Additionally, the firm estimated that the broader Bitcoin Layer-2 ecosystem could be worth another $7.6 trillion, driven by growing adoption and technological advancements.

Market Cycle and Halving Context

Historically, Bitcoin has shown cyclical peaks tied to its halving events, which cut mining rewards in half approximately every four years. The most recent halving occurred on April 20, 2024, about 534 days ago. In previous cycles, major tops formed between 500 and 550 days post-halving, leading some analysts to speculate that Bitcoin may be nearing another pivotal moment.

However, Lim noted that the current cycle differs due to institutional ETF inflows and reduced volatility, suggesting that historical patterns may not fully apply. “This isn’t the speculative frenzy of the past; it’s the maturation of an asset class,” he said. “An 86% gain on a much higher base, combined with shallow drawdowns, indicates sustainable growth.”

Steady Growth Over Speculative Surges

Both Lim and McMillin expect Bitcoin’s price trajectory to extend well beyond the typical halving cycle, supported by broader adoption and generational shifts in wealth. Lim forecast that Bitcoin could reach 30–50% of gold’s market cap within the next decade, translating to a price range of $300,000–$500,000 by 2035.

McMillin echoed this view, emphasizing that Bitcoin’s institutional demand and steady inflows from spot ETFs are creating a more stable foundation for future price appreciation. “In past cycles, Bitcoin peaked around 500–550 days after halving. This time, we expect it to run longer,” he said.

A Maturing Asset Class

While VanEck’s $644,000 target might seem distant, analysts argue that Bitcoin’s transformation from a speculative asset to a mainstream store of value makes such long-term projections increasingly credible.

“The data supports a more stable, durable market structure,” Lim concluded. “It’s not about hype—it’s about Bitcoin evolving into a global monetary asset.”