Mantra (OM) is under renewed pressure following a major sell-off by a large investor, commonly known as a whale. Recently, this whale moved over 10 million OM tokens, worth approximately $2.17 million, to the Binance exchange. This sizable transaction has sent shockwaves through the market, fueling debate among traders about whether it signals panic selling or a calculated repositioning. Regardless of the motive, the dump has amplified short-term bearish sentiment surrounding OM’s price.

Between December 2024 and April 2025, the whale had acquired these tokens from FalconX at a total cost of around $24.29 million. Selling at the current market price resulted in a significant realized loss of roughly $8.34 million. Such a steep loss typically indicates capitulation—a point where an investor gives up hope and liquidates holdings, often marking a turning point in market momentum. For Mantra, this move has intensified concerns about the token’s ability to bounce back quickly, especially given the wider market context.

On-chain data reveals a grim picture for OM holders. Approximately 95.46% of all addresses holding Mantra are currently underwater, meaning they are holding tokens bought at prices higher than today’s market value. Only about 4.47% of holders remain in profit. This widespread unrealized loss tends to create selling pressure whenever prices attempt to rise, as investors look to cut their losses or break even. Historically, such conditions lead to prolonged distribution phases where minor rallies fail to gain traction because many holders choose to sell during upward moves.

Looking at technical indicators, the outlook remains weak. Mantra’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 20.48, which is deep in oversold territory. An RSI below 30 typically suggests a potential bounce might be near, but other indicators paint a less optimistic picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which helps identify trend momentum, shows only a weak bullish crossover attempt that lacks strong follow-through. Moreover, the RSI has struggled to climb back above 30, underscoring ongoing market weakness. Together, these signals imply that bearish momentum may persist for some time.

Further reinforcing the negative sentiment is the 90-day Futures Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data, which shows persistent sell-side dominance. This means that aggressive sell orders continue to outweigh buy orders, especially in the derivatives market. Such sell dominance can exacerbate price declines as short positions pile up, making it harder for OM to recover quickly. Without a clear change in this selling behavior, downward price pressure is likely to continue.

Interestingly, while the number of new OM wallet addresses has risen by 15.79% in the past week, daily active addresses have dropped by nearly 5%. This divergence suggests that although new users are entering the ecosystem, actual on-chain activity and genuine engagement remain subdued. The growing number of wallets could be driven more by speculative interest rather than meaningful use or adoption. For OM’s price to recover sustainably, increased activity and user interaction are crucial, not just new wallet counts.

In summary, while the deep oversold condition of the RSI and a rise in new wallet addresses provide some hope, several factors paint a challenging outlook for Mantra. The heavy unrealized losses across holders, the recent whale sell-off, and dominant taker sell pressure indicate that downside risks are still strong. Without a significant shift in market sentiment, fresh positive catalysts, or broader crypto market recovery, OM is likely to face continued resistance in the near term. Traders and investors should approach with caution, monitoring the market closely before expecting any lasting recovery.