TRON’s native token, TRX, has been quietly positioning itself for a potential breakout, with strong whale accumulation and rising on-chain activity adding fuel to bullish sentiment. Yet, under the surface, cracks are forming. Recent data reveals a sharp decline in lending-based total value locked (TVL) and an ongoing dominance of sell-side trading activity—factors that could limit TRX’s upward movement despite encouraging price structure.

TRX Network Activity on the Rise

Since late 2024, TRON’s gas usage ratio has shown consistent growth. This metric reflects how much of the network’s capacity is being used and is often seen as a proxy for blockchain activity. A rising gas usage ratio typically indicates growing demand for blockspace, suggesting more users or applications are engaging with the network.

Historically, periods of increased gas usage have been associated with positive price trends for TRX. This correlation appeared to hold at press time, with TRX showing signs of recovery and pushing toward the upper end of its long-standing trading range. However, such relationships between network metrics and price have not always remained stable. At times, TRX has moved independently of on-chain indicators, making it critical for investors to stay cautious despite the current bullish alignment.

Lending TVL Collapse Raises Concerns

One of the more troubling signals for TRON has come from its lending sector. Over the past few weeks, lending protocols within the TRON ecosystem have seen a rapid $2 billion reduction in total value locked. This steep decline pushed the 14-day delta deeply into the negative, suggesting that a significant amount of capital has exited lending platforms.

This is particularly concerning because it comes at a time when TRX’s price has been climbing. Typically, falling lending TVL can signal reduced demand from borrowers, declining risk appetite, or even growing uncertainty among participants. While prices have not yet reacted negatively, such a mismatch between price movement and lending activity has historically preceded periods of heightened volatility.

Taker Volume Hints at Distribution, Not Accumulation

In contrast to the bullish technical setup, derivatives market data is flashing caution. The 90-day cumulative taker volume delta—a measure of aggressive buying versus selling—was tilted toward sell orders. In simpler terms, more market participants have been selling into the rally rather than buying up TRX at current prices.

This kind of sell-side dominance implies that TRX’s recent price movement may not be supported by strong conviction buying. Passive rallies driven by weak taker demand often lack staying power, and without a shift in sentiment or buyer volume, TRX could find itself struggling to break higher.

Whale Wallets Send a Different Signal

Interestingly, while derivatives traders appear cautious, on-chain distribution data tells a different story. Large holders, often referred to as whales, have increased their TRX holdings by over 10% in the past month. Mid-tier investors have been even more active, growing their wallets by over 41% during the same period.

This rise in whale and mid-level investor activity suggests that more sophisticated participants are accumulating TRX in anticipation of a major price move. Retail investors, however, have shown only minor increases in holdings, indicating that the broader market has not yet caught on to this quiet accumulation.

Whale-led rallies tend to have more staying power, as these participants often trade based on longer-term conviction rather than short-term volatility. This accumulation, especially during a consolidation phase, often precedes major breakouts.

Profit-Taking Could Cap TRX’s Upside

At the time of writing, TRX is trading near $0.288. At this level, nearly 92% of all holders are sitting on unrealized profits. While this reflects strong investor sentiment, it also introduces the risk of widespread profit-taking if the price nears resistance levels.

When most investors are “in the money,” upward momentum often faces challenges as some begin locking in gains. This can add to sell pressure, particularly if market confidence falters or external factors lead to a short-term correction.

Price Structure and Technical Outlook

TRX has been range-bound for several months, trading between $0.25 and $0.29. The current price action has brought it to the top of this range, putting it in breakout territory. With the relative strength index (RSI) nearing 65, the market is showing moderate bullish momentum, but still needs confirmation through volume and continued demand.

A decisive move above the $0.29 mark, accompanied by strong buying interest, could clear the way for TRX to revisit earlier highs. However, failure to break this key resistance zone could result in another rejection, keeping the price locked within its consolidation range.

Conclusion: TRX at a Crossroads

TRON’s recent uptrend has strong backing from whale accumulation and a noticeable rise in network activity. These factors typically support sustained bullish moves. However, the rapid decline in lending TVL and persistent dominance of sell-side trades introduce important risk elements.

To unlock the next leg higher, TRX must break and hold above $0.29 with clear buyer support and consistent network engagement. Without these key confirmations, the current rally could fade, leaving TRX trapped within its multi-month price range.