Despite XRP trading above $2 for the first time in years, crypto analyst “J4b1” believes it’s not too late to invest. In fact, the analyst suggests that buying XRP at $2.20 could be a strategically early move, given the growing potential for institutional adoption and structural support behind Ripple’s price management.

XRP’s history, which began in 2012 with a sub-penny valuation, reflects its transformation from an experimental digital asset into a serious cross-border payment solution. By the 2017 bull market, XRP soared to an all-time high of $3.84, propelled by investor enthusiasm and early institutional interest. However, its momentum was sharply interrupted by regulatory issues, including a 2015 FinCEN fine and the 2020 lawsuit from the U.S. SEC.

These regulatory hurdles caused a multi-year stagnation in adoption and price performance. However, Ripple’s strategy during that period didn’t stall. The company doubled down on its global presence, acquiring firms like Metaco, securing licenses, and expanding infrastructure that could eventually support massive on-chain financial activity.

J4b1 believes this groundwork is setting the stage for a strong resurgence. He cites a purported 2018 internal BlackRock report estimating XRP’s value between $6.37 and $30, suggesting that pre-SEC lawsuit projections remain highly relevant. Although the report’s existence has not been independently verified, the analyst uses it to highlight XRP’s institutional potential — which he believes was merely delayed, not denied.

One of the most intriguing elements of J4b1’s analysis is his interpretation of Ripple’s escrow strategy. Each month, Ripple unlocks 1 billion XRP from escrow, but typically sells only a small fraction via OTC transactions before relocking the remainder. According to J4b1, this method allows Ripple to stabilize XRP’s price to maintain liquidity for operational use — such as facilitating settlements between institutions.

Using a hypothetical example, he explains that if Ripple needs to transfer $200 million using 100 million XRP, the token must be worth at least $2. This could partially explain XRP’s current price plateau. Ripple may be motivated to keep the token within a functional price band that meets liquidity needs but avoids disruptive volatility.

However, this theory is speculative. A higher token price would logically benefit Ripple’s balance sheet and the broader ecosystem. Yet, if true, this kind of price anchoring may delay breakouts until external demand — especially from institutional players — overwhelms the company’s liquidity controls.

So, what could fuel XRP’s next breakout? The analyst outlines several major triggers: regulatory clarity (especially under a possible pro-crypto Trump administration), the approval of XRP spot ETFs, large-scale adoption of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) on the XRP Ledger, and a broader institutional push into blockchain-based payments.

A sudden uptick in institutional demand could absorb existing supply, potentially initiating a supply shock. In this scenario, if Ripple’s managed releases can’t meet external demand, XRP’s price could rise rapidly.

Based on his models, J4b1 sets a conservative 2025 price target of $6.37 and an optimistic scenario peaking at $30. He argues these forecasts aren’t speculative hype but are grounded in historical context, internal projections, and Ripple’s evolving role in global finance.

Ultimately, the analyst maintains that current prices still represent an opportunity rather than a missed chance. For those seeking long-term exposure to a utility-focused digital asset with deep institutional ties and a strong use case in cross-border payments, $2.20 may, in retrospect, look like an entry point — not a peak.