XRP has reached a tense phase in its price action, with one crypto analyst claiming that the token is approaching a breaking point where only two possible outcomes remain. After trading within a narrow range for several weeks, XRP is showing signs of a major move—either a breakout or a steep pullback—as its consolidation reaches a technical apex.

At the time of writing, XRP is priced at $2.17, showing a slight 1.5% gain over the past week. However, it remains down about 8% over the last 30 days. This recent stretch of sideways movement has left traders uncertain, especially as broader market sentiment cools and geopolitical tensions add further pressure on risk assets.

Despite the short-term volatility, XRP still holds a solid 335% gain over the past year, highlighting its resilience and growing appeal among both retail investors and institutions. With technical indicators aligning and fundamental interest building, many believe the next move could define XRP’s path through the rest of 2025.

Analyst Says XRP Is Reaching the Apex of Its Price Structure

According to popular market analyst CasiTrades, XRP has entered a critical stage where its price structure is tightening, and a large move may be imminent. Sharing her analysis on social platform X, she pointed out that XRP’s recent consolidation has reached a point of no return.

“XRP’s consolidation has finally reached its apex and something big is coming next,” she said, hinting that the current pattern could break in either direction. While she acknowledged the potential for an upward move, she also warned that a dip below support levels was just as likely.

CasiTrades further explained that if XRP fails to move above the $2.25 resistance soon, it could drop back to $2.00—or even as low as $1.55—before any recovery begins. This dual possibility has left many traders cautious, with some adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Interestingly, in a follow-up to her post, she hinted at a short-term decline being likely, though that prediction didn’t immediately play out. XRP continued to hover around the $2.15–$2.17 range, holding support despite broader market weakness.

Technical Indicators Suggest Oversold Conditions

Looking at XRP’s technical chart, there are signs that the token may be oversold. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, has been below the 50 level for an extended period. This typically indicates that the asset is undervalued and could be ready for a reversal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also supports this view, showing bearish momentum easing. Together, these signals suggest that while XRP is under pressure, the groundwork for a recovery could be forming—if certain resistance levels can be breached.

Price action is also showing a pattern of tightening between horizontal support and resistance lines, forming what technical analysts refer to as a “wedge.” This formation often leads to a sharp move when price exits the pattern.

Strong Fundamentals Backing XRP’s Long-Term Outlook

Beyond technicals, XRP’s fundamental position continues to strengthen. Recent weeks have seen several companies confirming the creation of XRP strategic reserves, a move that demonstrates growing confidence in the asset’s utility and future value.

Moreover, there’s rising optimism that U.S. regulators may approve XRP-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) later this year. Multiple asset managers are involved in active filings, and according to Bloomberg analysts, XRP now has a 95% chance of ETF approval by 2025.

Such institutional support further boosts the case for XRP as a legitimate, long-term digital asset. The Ripple network, which underpins XRP, is also expanding its global footprint through enterprise partnerships and financial infrastructure initiatives.

All of these factors contribute to a long-term view that remains highly bullish, despite the current phase of consolidation.

Market Uncertainty Adds a Layer of Complexity

XRP’s current price action comes amid a broader decline in the crypto market. The overall market is down about 1.5% in the past 24 hours, weighed down by rising tensions in the Middle East and sluggish progress in global trade talks.

These macro-level events continue to create uncertainty for all digital assets, including XRP. In such an environment, even fundamentally strong tokens can experience short-term pressure as investors seek safer assets or reduce risk exposure.

Still, XRP’s ability to hold its value while other altcoins decline may reflect growing market trust. Traders and analysts alike are now closely watching for a breakout move that could signal the next trend—either a return to bullish momentum or a deeper retracement.

Short-Term Price Targets and Potential Scenarios

If XRP breaks above the $2.25 resistance, technical charts suggest the next price target could be around $2.50. That level has historically acted as both support and resistance, making it a likely battleground in the next rally.

Should momentum carry through, XRP could climb toward $3 by September, especially if ETF approvals move forward or if Ripple’s business activity accelerates.

On the flip side, if XRP fails to hold above the $2.00 level, downside targets include $1.80 and $1.55. These levels represent earlier support zones that could act as a floor if sellers regain control.

Final Thoughts

XRP is once again at a pivotal moment. Its price consolidation has tightened to the point where analysts believe a significant move is coming—potentially within days. While short-term risks remain, technical and fundamental indicators suggest that XRP is well-positioned for long-term success.

The next few weeks could prove critical, with both regulatory updates and market sentiment likely to influence XRP’s direction. Whether it breaks higher or dips lower, one thing is certain: XRP is preparing for a move that could reshape its 2025 outlook.