XRP is currently under heavy selling pressure as some of the biggest gainers in its recent rally begin to lock in profits. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, investors are realizing approximately $68.5 million in profits each day. This level of XRP profit-taking is similar to what was seen just before the 2017 market peak, and concerns that the token could face a sharp correction of up to 35%.

Top Holders Take Profits After 300%+ Gains

The data shows that investors who accumulated XRP before November 2024—when the token was priced below $0.50—are the main contributors to the current selling activity. These early buyers are now sitting on gains exceeding 300% and are offloading their positions at a rapid pace.

This selling has led to a sharp rise in realized profits, which is the total value of coins sold above their acquisition price. On a 7-day moving average, realized profits have jumped to $68.8 million daily, indicating a wave of distribution by profitable long-term holders.

Parallels to XRP’s 2017 Top

This behavior is similar to the 2017–2018 cycle, where XRP rallied from around $0.005 to over $2.50 in less than a year. At the peak of that rally, investors who had made outsized returns began to take profits aggressively, which ultimately led to a dramatic 90% correction in XRP’s price.

Current on-chain data suggests that we could be seeing a repeat. While the circumstances are different in 2025—with more institutional interest and broader crypto adoption—the heavy profit-taking activity remains a cautionary signal.

70% of XRP’s Realized Cap Formed Since Late 2024

Another red flag lies in the structure of XRP’s realized cap. Over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap has been formed between late 2024 and early 2025. The realized cap is a metric that values each token based on its last transaction price.

When a large portion of a cryptocurrency’s realized cap is concentrated in a short period, it often indicates that the market is dominated by newer holders. This makes the market more fragile, as these recent buyers are more likely to sell quickly in response to volatility or price dips.

This “top-heavy” structure leaves XRP vulnerable to accelerated sell-offs if market sentiment turns bearish.

SOPR Suggests Sell Pressure from Newer Buyers

To further support the risk of a near-term correction, Glassnode’s SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) data shows weakening confidence among holders who bought in the past 3 to 6 months. This metric evaluates whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss.

The SOPR for the 3m–6m cohort has declined steadily, signaling a drop in profitability and an increase in selling pressure. Meanwhile, investors who bought 6 to 12 months ago still have a buffer, as their average buy price is around $1.35—meaning XRP would have to fall 35% before they hit breakeven.

With XRP currently trading near $2.14, these newer holders are already close to break-even territory, increasing the likelihood they might sell to secure remaining gains or minimize risk.

Price May Revisit $1.35–$1.60 Support Range

Given the current distribution patterns and historical fractals, XRP could see its price retreat to the $1.35 to $1.60 zone. This range is where long-term holders would begin to approach break-even points, possibly offering support—unless panic selling intensifies.

Technically, XRP is also forming a descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart, a bearish structure that often results in downward breakouts during uptrends. If the support line fails, XRP’s price could fall toward its realized price floor of $1.30.

Can XRP Bounce from Support?

Despite these warning signs, there is still hope for the bulls. The 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently serving as a key dynamic support, could help XRP avoid deeper losses. A decisive bounce from this level might invalidate the bearish setup and reignite momentum toward $3 and beyond.

However, that outcome will require a significant reduction in XRP profit-taking activity and a resurgence in new buyer demand.

Conclusion

XRP’s current rally is showing cracks as profit-taking hits $68.5 million daily, driven by early investors realizing 300%+ gains. Combined with a top-heavy market and weakening SOPR signals from newer buyers, XRP faces a real risk of a 35% correction, potentially testing the $1.35–$1.60 zone.

While long-term fundamentals remain intact for some investors, the short-term outlook suggests caution. Unless bulls reclaim key technical levels and selling pressure eases, the current trend could lead to deeper consolidation.