Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding steady around $104,000, showing resilience despite recent price swings. While short-term movements attract headlines, a larger discussion is growing in the crypto world — one that looks toward a long-term future shaped by major shifts in the global economy. At the center of that conversation is Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, who believes Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028.

Why Hayes Believes Bitcoin Is Headed for $1 Million

Arthur Hayes has been a prominent voice in the crypto space for years. Now, he predicts that Bitcoin could surge over 860% in the next three years — climbing from its current price of roughly $104,000 to a staggering $1 million. According to Hayes, the growing breakdown in global economic ties, especially between the U.S. and China, will push investors to seek alternatives outside of traditional finance.

One of his key points is the rise in capital controls. As governments tighten restrictions on money flows, Hayes expects people to move away from traditional financial tools like U.S. Treasury bonds. Instead, he believes they will turn to decentralized assets such as Bitcoin, which are borderless, digital, and hard to control.

Bitcoin’s Strength Over Traditional Assets

Hayes argues that Bitcoin has a unique edge over gold when it comes to cross-border transfers. Unlike gold, which is heavily regulated and often needs intermediaries to move, Bitcoin can be sent directly from person to person, without government oversight.

He points to China’s over-the-counter (OTC) Bitcoin market as proof. Despite a government ban on crypto exchanges, buyers and sellers in China continue to trade Bitcoin, showing that decentralized assets can still thrive under restrictive conditions.

Hayes believes that if similar capital restrictions appear in other countries — such as those in the European Union — people will likely find new ways to access and trade Bitcoin there as well.

How Market Liquidity Could Trigger a Price Explosion

According to Hayes, the structural setup of the market could cause Bitcoin’s price to rise sharply and suddenly. He notes that foreign portfolio assets total about $33 trillion globally. If just 10% of that wealth moves into Bitcoin, it would add $3.3 trillion in buying pressure.

Currently, only around $300 billion worth of Bitcoin is held on crypto exchanges. If demand jumps significantly without a matching supply increase, it could cause prices to rise rapidly.

Hayes backs up his view by comparing the value of U.S. Treasuries against gold and Bitcoin. Since 2021, Treasuries have lost over 60% of their value in gold terms — and more than 80% in Bitcoin terms. This trend, Hayes says, reflects how Treasuries are losing purchasing power even if their face value stays the same.

2028 U.S. Election Seen as a Key Moment

Hayes believes the 2028 U.S. presidential election could be a turning point for global economic policy. Depending on the outcome, he expects major shifts in fiscal and monetary strategies — shifts that could push more investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and political uncertainty.

He ties his $1 million prediction to this potential change in U.S. leadership, which he believes will influence how the world handles capital, debt, and decentralized currencies.

Other Experts Share Similar Outlooks

Hayes isn’t the only one who sees Bitcoin heading toward seven figures. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) recently suggested that Bitcoin could reach between $500,000 and $1 million during this current market cycle. He believes the ongoing crypto bull market could last through 2025 and potentially grow the total crypto market cap to $5 trillion.

In the U.S., Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a proposal urging the federal government to accumulate one million BTC over five years. Legal experts argue that if passed, this could drive Bitcoin’s price toward $1 million, especially if funded through a revaluation of the nation’s gold reserves.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes’ bold prediction of a $1 million Bitcoin by 2028 may sound far-fetched today, but it’s rooted in growing concerns about global financial stability, political change, and the shifting role of decentralized assets. With capital moving away from traditional instruments like U.S. Treasuries and toward Bitcoin, the foundations for a massive long-term rally may already be in place.