Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and well-known macro trader, has issued a cautionary yet insightful forecast for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. In his latest blog post, Hayes suggested that Bitcoin could experience a dip to $90,000 before reigniting its next major rally later this year. His perspective comes at a time of growing uncertainty in global financial markets, where tightening liquidity and shifting central bank policies continue to pressure risk assets, including crypto.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s recent rally has created ripe conditions for a short-term correction. While long-term fundamentals remain strong, he believes that profit-taking and a cautious investor mood may trigger a period of consolidation—or even a pullback—before the next leg up. A central focus of Hayes’ thesis is the potential impact of U.S. Treasury operations. Should the Treasury begin replenishing its General Account (TGA), liquidity could be pulled from the financial system, temporarily tightening the money supply and increasing volatility across markets.

This liquidity strain, coupled with macroeconomic ambiguity, especially leading up to the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August, could create what Hayes describes as a “summer lull.” During this phase, crypto prices may stagnate or drift lower. Hayes suggests that Bitcoin could retest levels near $90,000, flushing out weak hands and resetting market sentiment. For those prepared, this dip could offer a strategic entry point ahead of the next uptrend.

While short-term caution is warranted, Hayes also outlines what could drive the next major crypto bull run: the arrival of regulated stablecoins issued by traditional banks. With bipartisan momentum growing in Washington around stablecoin regulation—especially following the passage of the GENIUS Act—major U.S. banks like JPMorgan may soon begin issuing USD-backed digital tokens. Unlike existing stablecoins like USDC and Tether, these bank-issued versions would carry full regulatory oversight and possibly enjoy access to the Federal Reserve system.

This shift isn’t merely about bolstering consumer protection or offering new products—it represents a deeper structural change in how liquidity could move through the crypto ecosystem. Hayes argues that these regulated stablecoins would allow banks to recycle retail deposits into short-term Treasury bills without breaching capital or reserve requirements. Effectively, this mechanism could function as a form of shadow quantitative easing, pumping fresh liquidity into the system without needing a direct policy response from the Fed.

Such a transformation could have massive implications. Hayes estimates that if even a fraction of the $17 trillion currently held in U.S. bank deposits were tokenized into digital dollars, the demand for short-term Treasuries could surge by up to $6.8 trillion. That scale of liquidity injection wouldn’t be contained to fixed income markets. In Hayes’ view, a significant portion of that capital could spill over into crypto assets and tech equities, acting as fuel for the next explosive phase of risk-on growth.

This potential influx of liquidity represents a major paradigm shift—one that could redefine how capital flows between traditional finance and digital assets. Hayes believes this development could act as the foundation for a long-term crypto bull cycle, one that dwarfs previous rallies in both scale and scope. The early signs are already visible as institutions begin positioning themselves for the emergence of a regulated, bank-integrated crypto future.

For now, though, the market remains in a transitional period. Investors are watching closely for signals from the Federal Reserve and Treasury as they assess inflation trends, employment data, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Hayes remains cautiously positioned, noting that his hedge fund has already exited illiquid altcoins and may reduce its Bitcoin exposure further if downside risk escalates.

Still, his broader message is clear: while short-term dips may test investor resolve, they are part of a larger transformation underway. If the regulatory and financial environment evolves as expected, crypto markets could be standing at the edge of a historic expansion. A dip to $90K may be painful in the moment, but for long-term believers, it could be a gift in disguise.