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Bitcoin punched through $62,000 Friday after a lousy US jobs report took a lot of pressure off the Federal Reserve rate hike narrative. But don’t get too excited yet.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped June payroll numbers that came in at just 57,000 — roughly half the 110,000 economists had penciled in. Labor-force participation slipped to 61.5%. April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. Unemployment held at 4.2%. None of that is pretty. The dollar took its biggest weekly hit since early April, and the odds of a September rate hike fell to somewhere around 45%. For Bitcoin traders, a weaker dollar heading into a holiday weekend is basically a green light — at least on paper. Prices climbed to around $62,100 as the July 4 weekend kicked off, with reduced rate expectations giving crypto a bit of breathing room it didn’t have a week ago.
The relief rally is real. The conviction behind it, not so much.
Options Traders Aren’t Buying the Euphoria
On Deribit, put options are still priced above calls. The one-week 25-delta put-call skew dropped from 25% to around 16% — so the panic has cooled, but traders are still paying a premium to protect against a drop. That’s a pretty clear signal. The crowd buying insurance hasn’t fully left the building, even with the jobs data giving Bitcoin a short-term boost.
And there’s a specific options structure making things more complicated. Data from Laevitas on July 17 flagged a large Bitcoin position built as a long call-option condor. The setup involves long positions at $64,000 and $70,000, with short strikes sitting at $66,000 and $68,000. The math on that trade peaks if Bitcoin stays inside the $66,000-to-$68,000 band at expiration. That’s not a coincidence — it basically draws a ceiling on the market right now. Whoever put that trade on profits most if Bitcoin grinds sideways in that zone. Big options positions don’t move prices by themselves, but they do shape where traders expect resistance to sit.
So $66,000 to $68,000 is the range to watch. Below that, $60,000 is the support line that matters.
What Thin Holiday Liquidity Actually Means Here
US equity markets are closed for Independence Day. That sounds minor, but it’s not. Wall Street being offline strips out a lot of the usual cross-asset signals — ETF volume, equity correlations, institutional flow data. What’s left is basically options positioning and spot momentum. In that kind of environment, moves can get exaggerated fast in either direction. Thin liquidity amplifies everything.
If Bitcoin holds above $62,000 through the weekend, the path toward $66,000 opens up. That would probably please the condor traders who need prices to drift into that zone. A clean break above $68,000 would be a different story — that’s a genuine breakout, past the resistance the options structure defines. Unclear whether there’s enough buying pressure to pull that off with markets this quiet.
The downside scenarios are worth keeping in mind too. A rejection near $66,000 would basically confirm what the elevated put skew was warning about before the jobs report hit. If Bitcoin slips back below $60,000, the next area that’s been tested recently sits in the low-$57,000s — that was a trouble zone during the second-quarter pullback, and it could come back into play fast.
Stop orders are a factor here. If prices dip hard enough to trigger clustered stops below $60,000, it won’t be a slow grind lower — it’ll be quick. That’s the squeeze risk in a low-liquidity session.
The Setup Heading Into Sunday Night
The jobs report gave Bitcoin a genuine lift. Weaker growth data, a softer dollar, and fading rate hike odds are all tailwinds that crypto markets respond to. That part of the story is straightforward.
But the options market is telling a more complicated story. The put-call skew hasn’t fully normalized. The condor structure caps upside in the $66,000-to-$68,000 zone. And the holiday weekend removes the market mechanisms that normally smooth out volatility. Traders are cautiously optimistic — maybe — but they’re still hedged.
Bitcoin was sitting near $62,100 as of the latest data. The $66,000-to-$68,000 band is the zone that defines the weekend. Whether Bitcoin cracks it or gets turned back there is probably the only number that matters right now.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin rise above $62,000 after the US jobs report?
June payrolls came in at just 57,000 against an expected 110,000, which pushed the dollar to its biggest weekly drop since early April and reduced the odds of a September Fed rate hike to around 45%, giving Bitcoin a short-term boost.
What is the call-option condor structure and why does it matter for Bitcoin’s price?
The long call-option condor flagged by Laevitas involves long positions at $64,000 and $70,000 with short strikes at $66,000 and $68,000, meaning the trade profits most if Bitcoin stays between $66,000 and $68,000 at expiration — effectively marking that range as a key resistance zone for the weekend.
