Bitcoin has kicked off May with a powerful surge, breaking past the $97,000 mark for the first time in months. This move above a critical resistance level has reignited bullish sentiment in the crypto market, as many wonder if the world’s largest cryptocurrency is now headed toward a six-figure valuation.

But despite the excitement, the road ahead for BTC remains uncertain. According to recent on-chain analysis, Bitcoin now stands at a crucial turning point, with three possible paths unfolding from here: a full-scale bull rally, a stable consolidation, or a mild correction.

Bitcoin Breaks Resistance — But Is It Sustainable?

Bitcoin closed at $97,406 on May 1, overcoming a level it had failed to maintain since late February. This breakout has placed BTC above the short-term holder (STH) realized price, currently at $93,342. That metric represents the average on-chain acquisition cost for coins held for less than 155 days, and now it acts as a strong support floor for Bitcoin.

This shift also flipped many recent buyers into an unrealized profit position, reducing selling pressure and supporting the bullish thesis. However, traders are wary of assuming a straight path to all-time highs. The market is still navigating volatility, and BTC’s next move hinges on a key metric — its momentum ratio.

Three Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Next Move

Crypto analyst Axel Adler, using data from CryptoQuant, pointed to Bitcoin’s momentum ratio as a key signal. As of now, BTC’s momentum ratio sits around 0.8, placing it in what he calls the “start” of a rally phase. The direction Bitcoin takes next depends heavily on whether this ratio rises or falls.

Scenario 1: The Bull Run — Momentum Ratio Above 1.0

If Bitcoin’s momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and holds, it would indicate renewed strength and buying pressure. This would be supported by metrics like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) rising into bullish territory. Under these conditions, BTC could climb toward $150,000 to $175,000 — a move reminiscent of its explosive runs in 2017 and 2021.

Currently, the MVRV stands at 2.16, still far from the historical top zone near 3.9. Likewise, NUPL is at 0.54, suggesting the market is in an early optimism phase, not euphoria. These readings show there’s still room for upside before Bitcoin becomes overvalued.

Scenario 2: Consolidation Between $90K and $110K

In a more neutral outlook, if the momentum ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways in a wide band between $90,000 and $110,000. This would imply a period of base-building, where investors hold their positions but avoid aggressive new buying. Volatility would cool off, and the market would wait for a new catalyst.

This scenario is considered more likely if current buying pressure levels off but does not reverse significantly.

Scenario 3: Pullback Toward $70K–$85K

If the momentum ratio dips below 0.75, a bearish outcome may unfold. In that case, short-term holders could begin to cash out, triggering a correction back into the $70,000–$85,000 range. However, many analysts see this as the least likely outcome, given that Bitcoin already underwent a correction in April, which helped reset key indicators and flush out weak hands.

Which Path Will BTC Take?

While no one can predict the exact path, current market conditions favor either a bullish continuation or a consolidation phase. Indicators like NUPL and MVRV still show moderate levels, and with BTC sitting firmly above the STH realized price, investor sentiment appears cautiously optimistic.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a decisive zone. Whether it soars toward new highs, stabilizes in a holding pattern, or experiences another pullback will depend on how momentum and buyer behavior evolve in the coming days.