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The global financial landscape is bracing for a turbulent week as investors digest rising US Treasury yields, record-breaking moves in the crypto markets, and pivotal tech earnings. From increasing government debt concerns to Bitcoin’s unstoppable rally, here’s a comprehensive look at last week’s biggest events and what lies ahead.
US Treasury Yields Push Past 5% Amid Fiscal Alarm
Last week, long-term US government bond yields moved sharply higher, with both 20-year and 30-year Treasury rates climbing above 5.1%—a level not seen in years. The 10-year yield also moved beyond 4.6%. This movement followed a credit rating downgrade by Moody’s and weak demand during bond auctions.
Investors are becoming increasingly wary of the ballooning national debt, especially as former President Donald Trump promotes his new tax plan, called the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The legislation aims to extend prior tax cuts and introduce new exemptions, but could worsen the US deficit by nearly $4 trillion through 2034.
Market reactions were swift. US equity indices pulled back, and the dollar declined. Federal Reserve officials signaled a wait-and-see approach, likely holding interest rates steady at the next two policy meetings while monitoring inflation and tariffs.
UK and Australia Shift in Different Directions on Rates
In the United Kingdom, inflation rose more than expected to 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March. Increased utility costs and airfare prices were major contributors. As a result, analysts are scaling back expectations for Bank of England rate cuts this year—from two to just one.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.85%. The move reflects concerns about weakening job markets and economic stability amid global uncertainty. Futures markets responded quickly, raising the odds of another rate cut in July from 36% to 57%. The Australian dollar dipped slightly to 0.6421 following the decision.
Bitcoin Surges to New All-Time High
While traditional markets faced uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market moved higher. Bitcoin broke past its previous record, reaching over $111,900. This marks the seventh consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since December 2024.
This uptrend is supported by a weakening US dollar, clearer rules around stablecoins, and growing interest from large investors. Both US and Hong Kong authorities made progress last week in setting guidelines for stablecoin regulation, which has helped strengthen confidence in digital assets.
Technical indicators show Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend. Despite some signs of overbought conditions—such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70—analysts say the rally may continue. A short-term price pullback could find support between $102,000 and $102,500. If momentum holds, Bitcoin could move toward $130,000 based on technical projections.
Ethereum, however, is falling behind. While Bitcoin has gained more than 18% so far this year, Ether is down 21%. Ether is still trading 45% below its all-time high from 2021. Some analysts believe the gap in performance may narrow if conditions shift.
Trump’s Tax Bill Raises Concerns Over Debt
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” has stirred debate across financial and political circles. It includes a mix of tax breaks, such as:
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Extending the 2017 tax cuts
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Exempting tips and overtime wages from federal taxes
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Raising deduction caps for state and local taxes (SALT)
It also outlines spending cuts, including stricter Medicaid eligibility and the removal of food assistance (SNAP) for low-income households.
Economists warn the bill could add $3.8 trillion to the US deficit through 2034—much more than the $2 to $3 trillion expected from Trump’s tariff policies. The proposal has already affected stock and bond markets negatively.
From a market perspective, the US Tech 100 index reversed after testing resistance near 21,500. Analysts anticipate a move down toward 20,500. If that level fails, 19,600 could serve as the next support zone.
Japan’s Nikkei Near Key Resistance as Trade Talks Continue
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index is trading close to its 200-day moving average. The market reacted positively to renewed trade discussions with the United States. Japanese trade officials recently held another round of negotiations with American counterparts, with car tariffs being a key point of focus. Japan’s Prime Minister is expected to meet with Trump during the upcoming G7 summit in Canada.
Japan’s economy is showing signs of strain, contracting by 0.7% annually due to declining exports. At the same time, inflation is climbing. Core inflation rose to 3.5% in April, driven largely by food costs—rice prices, for example, have nearly doubled compared to a year ago.
Despite this, the Bank of Japan remains cautious about tightening monetary policy too quickly. The central bank is wary of acting amid trade policy uncertainty. The Nikkei index remains in a narrow range, supported by the 100-day moving average. A move above the 200-day average could signal more gains, while 35,750 serves as minor support.
What to Watch This Week: Fed Policy and Tech Earnings in the Spotlight
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key updates from central banks and technology companies. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak Monday, and the Fed’s meeting minutes due Thursday will offer more insight into interest rate policy.
Inflation data from the US and Australia will also be closely watched. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the US and Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will help shape expectations for future rate moves. China’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), expected Saturday, will provide clues about the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
In the corporate sector, Nvidia is at the center of attention. The semiconductor giant is projected to post revenue growth of more than 60% and earnings growth above 40%. Investors are watching for updates on:
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AI-related product development
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US export restrictions to China
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High-end GPU sales and pricing strategy
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Progress on a major US investment in AI infrastructure
Chinese tech firms like Meituan and PDD will also share their financial results, offering insight into e-commerce demand and innovation trends across Asia.
Final Thoughts
This week is shaping up to be a critical one for global markets. With Bitcoin reaching record highs, concerns over US fiscal policy intensifying, and major earnings reports ahead, investors should prepare for potential volatility.
Keeping an eye on policy signals from central banks and corporate performance will be essential. Whether you’re watching cryptocurrencies, equities, or economic data, this week could define the market’s next direction.
