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Alex good: I just read an interesting thread by RaoulGMI talking about techno utopianism and how we are all going to make it.
We are in what I believe is the final stage of the Super Bubble. The Super Bubble is the misconception that bailout capitalism is actually a free market.
The belief that markets are a machine is a beautiful lie, peddled very profitably by Ray Dalio. Funds invest hundreds of billions of dollars in his underperforming funds because it is so enticing to think of a system running on “levers”. Capitalism – the vast Randian Railroad.
Dalio and others advised Central Bankers in 2008 that bailing out the financial system, and later “going big” or using “bazookas” or doing “whatever it takes” is a far better alternative to the austerity which caused the Great Depression and subsequently led to WW2.
It’s difficult to say if this is true or not. What is less difficult to say is that we are now witnessing moral hazard at full force in financial markets. Lunatics are fully in charge of the asylum and exorbitant excess is visible in nearly every asset class. Consider crypto.
Bitcoin which started as a rejection of bailout capitalism has become part of it. Gensler referred to Satoshi affectionately as “Satoshisan”. Bitcoin was randomly whitelisted in an infra bill. Larry Fink loves the environment but also for ‘some reason’ is fine with crypto.
Tether is running a $70+ billion offshore bank which is a huge player in the global commercial paper market with a whitepaper that warns that a risk is “they may abscond with the funds”. Regulators are slow? Give me a fcking break. That was sane in 2018. Not anymore.
Bitcoin & crypto more broadly is an officially sanctioned way for the ruling class to get their money out of the system before a barrage of financial repression comes into effect via CBDCs. The $ has to flow out before 2025 when all transactions are tracked, and fully taxed
To understand the inevitability of tax — consider the premise underlying the last 12 years of bailout capitalism. The 3 deflationary drivers: cheap commodities, cheap Chinese labor, and ‘structural technology deflation’. I believe these drivers were transitory. Why?
Second – Chinese Labor. Louis Vuitton bags are comping at 39% vs 2019 in China. Apple is selling 89% more iphones this year than last year in China. China was poor in 2009. Now China is rich. This is outright inflationary, and doubly so when you factor in geopolitical tension
Third – Technology. Companies like Uber and WeWork are great example of venture backed largesse that never really made money and still don’t. They lowered the price of office space and taxis. But now they need to hike prices to make $. Same story with cloud computer.
Those who want to know more might have to visit the direct account.
