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Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a modest recovery, climbing to $116,000 on Friday. Despite this upward movement, most indicators tracking the cryptocurrency’s bull market momentum have turned bearish, signaling that the market’s upward energy may be slowing. According to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, eight out of ten of its Bull Score Index indicators are now flashing red, showing signs of cooling momentum.
CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun noted that the majority of the metrics, which include supply, profit, and trading flow measures, indicate weakening bullish sentiment. Only two indicators remain positive: Bitcoin demand growth and the technical signal. Demand growth measures how much interest exists for BTC in the market, and it has remained bullish since July. The technical signal monitors standard technical analysis metrics and patterns.
Breakdown of Bearish Indicators
The other eight indicators signaling bearish conditions include the MVRV-Z score, profit and loss index, bull-bear cycle indicator, inter-exchange flow pulse, network activity index, stablecoin liquidity, trader on-chain profit margin, and trader realized price.
The MVRV-Z score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, highlighting whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical cost. The profit and loss index measures the portion of BTC supply currently in profit. Bull-bear cycle indicators track prevailing sentiment, while exchange flow pulses reflect the volume of BTC moving in and out of exchanges. Network activity, stablecoin liquidity, and trader profit margins provide further insight into on-chain dynamics and investor behavior.
Historically, a similar level of bearish signals occurred in April when BTC plunged to $75,000. Conversely, in July, eight out of ten of these indicators were bullish, coinciding with Bitcoin reaching $122,800, marking a significant peak earlier this year.
Bull Score Index and Market Trends
CryptoQuant’s overall Bull Score Index, which combines all ten indicators into a single measure, has been oscillating between 20 and 30 over the past month. This indicates that the ongoing correction is maintaining a cautious market sentiment.
Additionally, the CoinGlass Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), which analyzes nine metrics to assess the stage of the bull market, currently registers 74. This suggests that the market is approaching three-quarters of the way through the current bull cycle. However, only one of the 30 bull market peak indicators has activated so far, and that relates to the altcoin season index, showing that Bitcoin may still lag behind broader market trends.
Bitcoin’s Performance Compared to Other Assets
Despite BTC holding steady around $116,000, it has been underperforming relative to other asset classes. Crypto trading software provider SignalPlus noted that Bitcoin is lagging behind its peer cryptocurrencies, equities, and even spot gold. Net buying momentum has slowed, and corporate digital asset treasury purchases have decreased substantially. Centralized exchanges report low inflows of new capital, suggesting that investors are shifting focus toward equities and other safer assets.
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, highlighted the need for a defensive approach in the short term. “The short-term picture looks a bit more challenging,” she said. “Investors may prefer a cautious stance given seasonal market patterns and general risk asset behavior.”
Optimism for Extended Bull Market
Despite the bearish indicators, some analysts maintain a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Tony Edward, a crypto podcaster, suggested that global liquidity recovery could extend the current bull market cycle. He believes a local top may occur in Q4 of 2025, with a potential blowoff peak in Q1 of 2026.
This perspective suggests that while short-term momentum may be cooling, the overall bullish cycle remains intact, giving investors hope for continued price growth over the coming months.
Bitcoin Reclaims $116K
Friday’s price rebound marked Bitcoin’s highest level in three weeks, representing a 1.5% gain for the day. The asset now sits just 6.8% below its all-time high of $124,000, set last month. Comparatively, the correction so far has been shallower than previous cycles, hinting that the market retains resilience despite bearish signals from the Bull Score Index.
As Bitcoin continues to trade near $116,000, investors are closely monitoring both on-chain indicators and macroeconomic trends. While short-term caution is advised, analysts remain cautiously optimistic that institutional participation, liquidity trends, and broader market sentiment could support further gains into the next bull market phase.
