Bitcoin Bull Market Ending in 50 Days, Says Analyst

The ongoing Bitcoin bull market may be entering its final chapter, with analysts warning that the peak could arrive within the next two months. If correct, this cycle’s top would likely occur in late October or early November, potentially signaling the beginning of a new bearish phase in 2026.

Analyst Warns: 95% of Bull Cycle Already Completed

According to crypto market analyst CRYPTO₿IRB, Bitcoin has already completed around 95% of its current cycle. He explained that a “cycle peak countdown” based on previous halving events and cycle lows suggests that the market has just 50 days left before the top is in.

The analyst highlighted two key data points:

• It has been 1,017 days since the November 2022 cycle low. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after a cycle bottom.

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• The April 2024 Bitcoin halving occurred 503 days ago. Previous peaks came 518 to 580 days after a halving, which also places the market within what he calls the “hot zone” for a final surge.

If this historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could reach its cycle high between late October and mid-November 2025.

What Happens After the Peak?

Cycles in Bitcoin have followed a remarkably consistent pattern since the asset’s inception. Each bull run ends with a steep correction, followed by a prolonged bear market lasting about a year.

CRYPTO₿IRB warned that once the current peak is established, Bitcoin could experience a 70% to 80% drawdown over the following 370 to 410 days. This suggests that a 2026 bear market is a near certainty based on historical precedent.

The 2021 bull market offers a recent example. Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high in November 2021 after rebounding from a September dip, only to collapse by more than 70% throughout 2022.

Similarly, Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, observed that September has historically marked a low point in post-halving years. Bitcoin then typically rebounds strongly into the fourth quarter, where the market cycle peak is often reached.

Could This Cycle Be Different?

While historical charts suggest Bitcoin is closing in on its peak, some analysts argue that 2025 may not follow the same script. They highlight several differences in today’s market compared to prior cycles:

1. Institutional Adoption – Unlike 2017 or 2021, this cycle has been heavily driven by institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in early 2024, have attracted billions in inflows, fundamentally altering market dynamics. Corporate treasuries and large financial institutions now hold significant amounts of BTC, providing a new layer of long-term support.

2. Government Policy – The United States currently has a pro-crypto government, a stark contrast to previous cycles marked by regulatory uncertainty. This political environment may reduce the severity of any future bear market.

3. Liquidity Conditions – The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the coming weeks, making borrowing cheaper and potentially injecting more liquidity into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

These factors could soften or delay a sharp correction, though analysts still caution that no cycle lasts forever.

Current Bitcoin Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $112,200, recovering from a brief dip below $109,500 earlier in the week. The asset has been consolidating between $107,500 and $112,500 for nearly two weeks, with support levels holding despite minor pullbacks.

However, this sideways action has also brought lower lows on shorter timeframes, raising questions about whether Bitcoin could see another September-style correction before any potential breakout.

If history repeats itself, BTC may drop below the $100,000 level during September, setting the stage for a sharp rebound into Q4 and possibly the final push toward new highs.

What Investors Should Watch

For traders and long-term holders alike, the next 50 days could be decisive. Key signals to watch include:

• ETF inflows and outflows, which reflect institutional appetite.

• Federal Reserve policy changes, especially interest rate cuts.

• On-chain data, such as whale distribution and exchange flows.

• Market sentiment indicators like funding rates and open interest in futures contracts.

If Bitcoin follows historical precedent, October and November could bring dramatic price action before a longer correction sets in. But if this cycle proves unique, institutional demand and liquidity conditions may help support prices at higher levels than in past bear markets.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s history suggests that every bull market has an expiration date, and analysts argue that this one may be only weeks away from its peak. Yet, unlike earlier cycles, today’s market is influenced by powerful new forces—ETFs, institutional investors, and policy shifts—that could change how the next phase unfolds.

Whether the bull market ends in 50 days or stretches further, investors should brace for volatility. For some, the coming months may represent the last opportunity to ride the current cycle’s upside. For others, it could be the time to prepare for accumulation during the next downturn.