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Bitcoin’s dramatic drop from $110,000 to around $80,000 in 2025 has raised concerns among traders and analysts alike. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, early whale selling has been the main driver behind this decline, outweighing institutional inflows from ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy. On-chain metrics reveal that Bitcoin is currently in the “shoulder” phase of its cycle, signaling limited short-term upside and potential corrections of up to 30%.
Early Whale Selling Puts Bitcoin Under Pressure
Ki Young Ju attributes the current Bitcoin market downturn to legacy whales realizing profits. These investors, who acquired BTC at cost bases near $16,000, have been selling hundreds of millions of dollars daily. This persistent profit-taking has created substantial downward pressure on Bitcoin, even as institutional investors continue to accumulate positions.
Ju notes that institutional whales, including spot ETF participants and MicroStrategy, hold significant amounts of Bitcoin, but their buying power has not been sufficient to counter the heavy selling from early holders. For context, wallets holding over 10,000 BTC for more than 155 days typically have an average cost basis around $38,000. Traders on Binance entered positions closer to $50,000, which means many participants are still in profit and capable of selling if the market turns.
The data confirms that institutional inflows, though significant, are currently being overshadowed by early whale liquidation, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to near-term declines.
ETF and MicroStrategy Inflows Provide Temporary Support
Earlier in 2025, Bitcoin’s price had benefited from inflows via spot ETFs and corporate accumulation, particularly by MicroStrategy. According to Farside Investors, ETFs recorded $42.8 million in net inflows on November 26, 2025, bringing cumulative inflows for the year to $62.68 billion.
Despite these inflows, Ju explains that the sheer magnitude of early whale selling continues to outweigh institutional accumulation. As ETF and corporate inflows decline, the market has begun to tilt toward net outflows, which increases the potential for further price weakness in the short term.
Market Cycle Analysis Suggests Limited Upside
On-chain profit-and-loss metrics provide a detailed look at Bitcoin’s market cycle. Ju’s analysis using the PnL index with a 365-day moving average indicates that Bitcoin has entered the “shoulder” phase—a late-cycle period often characterized by constrained growth potential.
In this phase, the market’s valuation multiplier becomes neutral or flat, meaning that new buying power does not create the same amplified market-cap growth seen in earlier cycles. This late-cycle positioning, combined with high leverage ratios and subdued institutional flows, suggests that Bitcoin is unlikely to mount a major rally in the near term.
Potential Corrections Could Reach 30%
Although Ju does not expect an extreme 70-80% crash, he warns that a 30% correction is reasonable under current conditions. For example, a drop from $100,000 could push Bitcoin toward $70,000, aligning with historical patterns of late-cycle retracements.
Ju supports this view with data from OKX futures long-short ratios, exchange leverage ratios, and buy-sell flow patterns. These indicators confirm that selling pressure from early whales remains significant, and without renewed institutional demand, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound or trend lower in the near term.
The Importance of a Data-Driven Approach
Ju emphasizes that traders should base decisions on metrics rather than speculation. By monitoring on-chain data, exchange activity, and market structure, investors can gain a clearer understanding of potential risk and reward.
He also highlights the importance of tracking whale behavior, noting that early profit-taking can significantly affect market dynamics. Traders who fail to account for this activity may underestimate short-term downside risk and overestimate the effectiveness of institutional inflows in supporting price levels.
Institutional Accumulation Faces Challenges
While ETF and corporate inflows are important for market stability, they cannot completely offset the selling pressure from early whales. Ju notes that the current climate is challenging for institutions: the late-cycle market structure, high leverage, and neutral valuation multipliers mean that even large inflows may only modestly influence Bitcoin’s price.
As a result, investors should be prepared for continued volatility and potential corrections in the near term. Any significant rally will likely require a slowdown in whale selling or a surge in institutional buying to shift the balance of supply and demand.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent decline from $110,000 to $80,000 is primarily driven by early whale selling, according to Ki Young Ju. While institutional inflows from ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy provide some support, they are currently insufficient to counteract the heavy selling pressure. On-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin is in the “shoulder” phase of its cycle, suggesting limited upside potential and the possibility of corrections up to 30%.
Traders are advised to adopt a data-driven approach, monitoring whale activity, institutional flows, and on-chain metrics to navigate the current market landscape. Without a slowdown in early whale selling or renewed institutional interest, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound or trend lower in the near term, reinforcing the need for caution amid ongoing volatility.
