Bitcoin (BTC) continues to dominate headlines after hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $125,000, as analysts point to ETF inflows rather than corporate treasury purchases as the primary driver behind the rally. While companies accumulated $1.2 billion in Bitcoin last week, it was the spot ETFs that truly stole the show, signaling strong institutional demand and bullish momentum across the crypto market.

Corporate Bitcoin Accumulation

Last week, Bitcoin treasury companies collectively purchased over 6,700 BTC, with Japanese investment firm Metaplanet leading the charge, acquiring 5,258 BTC on October 1.

While corporate accumulation demonstrates ongoing institutional interest, analysts suggest it was ETF inflows that had a more immediate impact on Bitcoin’s recent price surge.

Bitcoin treasury activity continues to underscore the growing role of corporations in the BTC market. Corporate treasuries now hold over 1.4 million BTC, valued at $166 billion, representing 6.6% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. These figures reflect a long-term strategy of holding BTC as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation.

ETF Inflows Spark Bitcoin Rally

Despite corporate accumulation, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $3.24 billion last week, nearly matching their record week in November 2024. Analysts highlight that ETFs have increasingly become a major source of liquidity and institutional exposure to Bitcoin.

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, explained:

“ETF inflows sparked the price increase, supported by tight exchange supply, a weaker dollar, and macro uncertainty. Strong institutional demand reinforced bullish momentum.”

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas added that ETFs went “wild last week with +$3.3 billion in a week, $24 billion for the year,” emphasizing the growing influence of institutional investment vehicles on BTC price discovery.

Institutional Demand Outpaces Mining Supply

Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are also shaping the current bull run. Miners currently generate approximately 900 BTC per day, while businesses acquired 1,755 BTC daily in September, and ETFs purchased 1,430 BTC per day on average in 2025.

This supply-demand imbalance has contributed to Bitcoin’s tight market liquidity, reinforcing upward price pressure. Analysts argue that as institutional demand continues to exceed mining output, ETF-driven inflows will likely sustain BTC rallies, especially in the fourth quarter.

ETFs Could Fuel Further Gains

Crypto analyst Will Clemente III highlighted ETF inflows as the primary factor behind the recent price surge:

“The most bullish thing about this move is that it wasn’t driven by treasury companies or perpetual traders, but by spot ETF buying — likely macro portfolio managers and funds viewing BTC as a rotation from commodities and small caps.”

With ETFs now holding over 1.5 million BTC worth $188 billion, representing 7.2% of total supply, their continued influence is expected to drive market momentum, especially as supply on exchanges remains near six-year lows.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, also noted that Bitcoin is poised for renewed momentum in late 2025 due to corporate and institutional accumulation, tighter supply, and supportive macroeconomic conditions.

Outlook for Bitcoin in Q4 2025

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate that Bitcoin’s trajectory will remain shaped by:

• Institutional adoption and growing ETF participation

• Shrinking exchange supply creating tighter liquidity conditions

• Macroeconomic tailwinds, including fiat debasement and low interest rates

• Regulatory clarity, which may boost investor confidence

Vincent Liu summarized the market environment:

“Future Bitcoin gains will likely swing on institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, tightening supply, and a supportive macro environment with prolonged low interest rates.”

With ETFs increasingly becoming a dominant force in the Bitcoin market, analysts predict that further rallies and volatility could continue, reinforcing BTC’s position as a key asset for institutional and corporate portfolios alike.