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Bitcoin (BTC) may be heading for one last corrective dip near $104,000 before the next major bull run begins, according to crypto analysts tracking historical support patterns and market leverage. This potential “final flush” aligns with long-term technical indicators and could set the stage for renewed upward momentum in the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Historical Support and the 50-Week Moving Average
Market watchers point to the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) as Bitcoin’s key long-term support level. Currently standing around $102,500, this indicator has historically acted as a reliable floor, having been tested four times since the 2023 bull market began. Analysts suggest that a revisit to this SMA could serve as the final correction point before BTC resumes its bullish trajectory.
Crypto analyst Sykodelic highlighted the role of leverage and liquidity clusters near $104,000, explaining that these conditions make a temporary dip highly plausible. “I know it’s not what any holder wants to hear, but very likely we take that out,” Sykodelic noted. The analyst added that the market often feels most pessimistic right before reversing—a pattern evident during previous cycles when BTC fell to $74,000 in April 2025 and $49,000 in August 2024 before rebounding sharply.
The Final Phases of Correction
Other analysts echo the possibility of a near-term correction as part of a healthy market adjustment. “We are seeing a repeat of the final phases of correction,” said Negentropic, emphasizing that current profit-taking is less intense than prior pullbacks. According to this view, BTC may dip to the $102,000–$104,000 range before the next upward leg begins.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, also framed the correction as a healthy reset, noting, “Bitcoin may retrace to $104,000 as part of a healthy market correction, driven by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, the underlying fundamentals and institutional interest remain robust, setting the stage for a strong resumption of the bull market.”
Key Support Levels to Watch
Analysts have also highlighted the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a crucial support area during the current cycle. Daan Crypto Trades explained that while price occasionally fluctuates around this EMA during volatile periods, BTC has not broken the overall trend for more than a month in this cycle. This indicates that even if the $104,000 target is reached, Bitcoin’s longer-term uptrend remains intact.
Bitcoin’s consolidation near $108,000 reflects a broader pattern of short-term resistance turning into support. Recent price action shows BTC briefly spiking to $113,000 before retreating to $107,000, suggesting that the market is preparing for a larger movement once the correction phase concludes.
Why a Dip Could Be Positive
A final flush to $104,000 could serve multiple market purposes. Firstly, it allows profit-taking by traders and institutions, relieving short-term pressure and creating room for a renewed rally. Secondly, it aligns with historical patterns where BTC corrections set up stronger bullish recoveries. Such moves often coincide with heightened market sentiment, leading to increased capital inflows from both retail and institutional participants.
The correction may also help rotate liquidity into altcoins. Historically, when Bitcoin approaches key support levels, some investors diversify into alternative cryptocurrencies, often sparking mini altcoin rallies that complement the primary BTC recovery.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Interest
Despite short-term bearish signals, analysts emphasize that institutional demand and macro fundamentals remain strong. Large-scale investors continue to view BTC as a hedge against inflation and a store of value, with high liquidity on major exchanges signaling readiness for the next bull cycle.
Sykodelic and other market observers believe that once BTC stabilizes near the 50-week SMA, a wave of buying pressure could push the price above key resistance levels around $108,000 and $113,000, potentially triggering the next leg of the bull market.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s near-term outlook suggests a possible dip to $104,000 before the market turns decisively bullish. Technical indicators like the 50-week SMA and 200-day EMA provide key levels of support, while market leverage and liquidity clusters point to a temporary pullback.
For investors, this period may offer an opportunity to accumulate BTC ahead of the next upward cycle. Historical trends, institutional interest, and market psychology all indicate that the correction could serve as a healthy reset, paving the way for a strong resurgence in the Bitcoin bull market.
