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Bitcoin (BTC) is again in the spotlight as traders brace for a potentially volatile Labor Day weekend. With sellers overpowering dip buyers in both spot and futures markets, concerns are mounting that BTC could tumble toward $105,000 or lower. The pressure is compounded by selling from OG Bitcoin whales, declining ETF inflows, and cautious investor sentiment ahead of a holiday market closure in the U.S.
Dip Buyers Return, but Sellers Still Dominate
Despite some renewed dip-buying activity, Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory remains under bearish control. Data shows that cumulative selling pressure in the perpetuals futures market is far outpacing buying interest. Traders in the 10,000 to 10 million BTC cohorts on Binance have been consistently unloading positions, suppressing any bullish breakout attempts.
Meanwhile, spot buyers—primarily in the 100 to 10K BTC retail-size cohort—are stepping in to purchase each dip. However, their efforts have not been sufficient to offset the overwhelming selling volumes. Each failed attempt at a support-resistance flip adds weight to the bearish outlook, with shorts thickening across the board.
Whale Activity Raises Red Flags
Another major source of anxiety stems from long-dormant OG Bitcoin wallets that have begun transferring and liquidating their holdings. Notably, some whales are converting proceeds into Ether (ETH), a move that highlights shifting institutional preferences.
Such large-scale transactions introduce downward pressure on BTC’s price, particularly in a fragile market environment. Analysts warn that the potential sale of another billion-dollar tranche of Bitcoin could push BTC below the $105,000 level, triggering further panic among leveraged traders.
ETF Outflows Add to Bearish Sentiment
Bitcoin’s weakness is not confined to futures markets alone. Spot BTC ETFs, which had been a consistent source of inflows earlier in the summer, are now witnessing declining investor participation. This trend reflects reduced institutional appetite for exposure amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty.
At the same time, the broader equity markets—represented by the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq—have also shown end-of-week weakness. The correlation between crypto and traditional risk assets suggests that Bitcoin may continue to track equity sentiment in the short term, particularly when Wall Street remains closed for Labor Day.
Trump’s Tariff Policies and Fed Tensions
Macroeconomic conditions are also feeding into Bitcoin’s volatility. U.S. President Donald Trump’s fluctuating rhetoric on tariffs and his push to assert more control over the Federal Reserve board have unsettled markets.
While broader inflation metrics remain in check thanks to stable energy prices, services inflation is trending higher, adding another layer of concern for investors. Traders are increasingly cautious about how the Fed will balance inflationary pressures with the need to cut rates to support growth.
Currently, many market participants expect the Fed to begin rate cuts in late September or October. However, these hopes have not been strong enough to lift Bitcoin in the short run.
Technical Signals Point to $105K
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s intraday price action remains tightly linked to perpetual futures activity. The cumulative volume delta highlights strong selling dominance, while liquidation heat maps reveal clusters of downside liquidity.
The 30-day liquidation heat map shows the largest cluster around $104,000, making it a key short-term magnet for price action. Additional downside bids have been observed at $105,000, $102,600, and $100,000. On a deeper level, buyers are also present in the $99,000 to $92,000 range, suggesting that if $105K breaks, a test of lower levels is likely.
This aligns with historical order book data, which shows that prior to August 19, buyers had not outweighed sellers in the spot order book since BTC fell below $98,000 in June.
Retail Buyers Show Resilience
Despite the dominance of sellers, retail buyers are demonstrating resilience by accumulating each dip. The bid-to-ask ratio, set at 10% order book depth, revealed increased buy interest when BTC dipped into the $112,000–$111,000 range in mid-August, and again when it fell to $107,200 this past weekend.
While encouraging, these inflows have yet to change the overarching bearish structure. For now, sellers remain firmly in control, and the presence of whale selling only amplifies the risk of deeper corrections.
Short-Term Outlook: Pressure Builds Ahead of Holiday Closure
The convergence of factors—ranging from whale liquidations and ETF outflows to macroeconomic uncertainty—places Bitcoin in a precarious position. The Labor Day holiday closure of U.S. markets is likely to thin liquidity further, amplifying volatility and making BTC more vulnerable to sharp downside moves.
Unless dip buyers step up aggressively or macro conditions improve, Bitcoin may be poised for another test of lower support levels, with $105,000 as the first major target.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s immediate future is being shaped by a tug-of-war between determined dip buyers and overpowering sellers, with OG whale activity tilting the balance toward bearish momentum. While long-term fundamentals remain intact, the short-term risk environment suggests traders should brace for heightened volatility.
As liquidity thins during the holiday and market participants await clearer signals from the Fed, Bitcoin could see further turbulence. A decisive defense of $105,000 may help stabilize the market, but failure to hold could set the stage for a deeper retracement toward the $100,000 zone.
