Bitcoin (BTC) may be headed for a deeper correction, as recent geopolitical tensions and technical signals suggest the market could reset further before any meaningful recovery. After reaching a high above $112,000 earlier this month, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 9%, with its price falling below $102,500 during a wave of volatility on June 21.

At press time, Bitcoin hovered near $100,800, following reports of U.S. military action in Iran. The development triggered panic across global markets, with crypto investors reacting swiftly to the uncertainty. The resulting decline has ignited a wave of liquidations and raised concerns that BTC may be at risk of falling further—potentially toward the $82,000 level.

What Triggered Bitcoin’s Latest Drop

The sell-off began as Bitcoin lost critical support near $103,000, which activated a cluster of leveraged long positions. Once breached, the cascading liquidations totaled over $127 million within 24 hours, according to Coinglass.

While Bitcoin’s price is still within a typical bull market range, the speed and scale of liquidations suggest many traders were caught off guard by the geopolitical news. The panic-driven sell-off also triggered capitulation among short-term holders, adding more pressure to the already fragile market.

Technical Indicators Hint at Deeper Correction

Market analysts are closely watching Glassnode’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. This tool helps gauge whether Bitcoin is experiencing unusually high levels of unrealized profit or loss. On June 21, BTC fell below the +0.5σ band, which historically signals a higher likelihood of a sustained correction.

The last time this breakdown occurred was in February 2025, followed by a six-week-long decline that brought Bitcoin’s price closer to the mean band. If history repeats itself, BTC could be heading toward the $82,000–$83,000 zone unless positive catalysts emerge quickly.

This mid-range correction aligns with patterns seen in previous bull markets. Temporary drawdowns of 20% to 30% are not unusual even in strong uptrends.

Stablecoin Metrics Suggest Stronger Buying Power

Despite the downside risks, not all indicators are bearish. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which compares stablecoin reserves to Bitcoin’s market cap, has been falling. This suggests that more stablecoins are sitting on the sidelines, potentially waiting to be deployed into Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

A lower SSR typically indicates growing buying power. However, it does not always translate into immediate price gains—especially during periods of heightened uncertainty. In past cycles, capital often remained idle until a clear trend reversal was confirmed.

At present, the SSR remains well above the extreme lows seen during major bottoms in March and April, meaning buyers may still be waiting for lower entry points.

Bitcoin’s Drawdown Still Small by Historical Standards

Bitcoin is currently down just 8.75% from its all-time high. In contrast, the previous correction in April saw a decline of over 24%. Going further back, historical bull markets have included drawdowns of 30%, 40%, and even 50% before regaining momentum.

This relatively small correction suggests more room for downside before investors start to see signs of capitulation or a meaningful bottom. While many traders are hopeful for a quick rebound, the market’s current trajectory mirrors past pullbacks that required several weeks to stabilize.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s next few moves may be heavily influenced by both technical levels and macroeconomic developments. The $100,000 support level is crucial—if it fails, the door could open for a test of the $95,000 zone, and potentially deeper toward $83,000 as projected by the MVRV analysis.

On the flip side, if sentiment shifts and buyers step in at these lower levels, BTC could attempt to reclaim lost ground. But with global uncertainty at play and volatility rising, any recovery is likely to face strong resistance in the $104,000–$106,000 range.

As always, traders are advised to proceed with caution and manage risk carefully. Short-term volatility may continue to dominate, but long-term fundamentals remain intact for Bitcoin.

Conclusion: A Test of Patience for BTC Holders

Bitcoin is no stranger to corrections, even in the middle of powerful bull markets. The recent drop is part of a broader pattern that has played out many times in the past. Whether BTC finds a bottom near current levels or drops further to $82,000 will depend on a mix of investor sentiment, macroeconomic news, and market liquidity.

The good news? Stablecoins are building up, offering potential firepower for a future bounce. The bad news? It may get worse before it gets better.

For now, the market waits—with caution.