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Bitcoin may be heading into a critical moment as analysts warn of a possible 50% crash if it fails to hit a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming weeks. While investor sentiment remains largely optimistic in the long term, short-term price action could spell trouble. A respected crypto analyst, Tony Severino, has sounded the alarm, highlighting a specific technical pattern that could signal a major correction is on the horizon.
According to Severino, Bitcoin’s price chart is currently showing signs of what’s known in Elliott Wave theory as an “Expanded Flat” correction pattern. These formations usually occur during sideways market phases and consist of three waves labeled A, B, and C. He believes that Bitcoin is finishing its wave B—a temporary rally—before it starts wave C, which traditionally involves a steep drop. This could pull BTC down to the $60,000 region or even lower, effectively slashing its value by more than 50% from its recent highs of around $118,000.
The situation is made more concerning by comparisons to Bitcoin’s 2021–2022 cycle. At that time, the crypto briefly peaked before plunging into a deep bear market, also following an expanded flat correction. Severino sees a similar setup now, with Bitcoin potentially forming a deceptive rally before a significant reversal. His chart, shared on X (formerly Twitter), illustrates how the current upward move may be the final part of this wave B formation—setting the stage for a sudden crash.
Still, Severino’s outlook isn’t entirely pessimistic. He remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin and suggests this potential drop could be a temporary correction within a larger upward trend. According to him, Bitcoin is ultimately poised to enter a Wave 5 rally, which would take the price to a fresh all-time high. However, for that bullish scenario to play out, Bitcoin must break above its previous ATH soon. Otherwise, the bearish pattern might continue to dominate the market.
The timing is crucial. If Bitcoin doesn’t push past its all-time high within the next few weeks, the expanded flat structure may take over, potentially delaying any serious rally for months. A crash of this scale wouldn’t just affect Bitcoin—it could stall the broader crypto market, especially altcoins, which often follow BTC’s lead. The much-anticipated altcoin season may get postponed, frustrating investors looking for faster returns.
In contrast to Severino’s warning, another analyst known as “The Crypto Professor” offers a more optimistic short-term view. Following Bitcoin’s recent surge above $123,000—though it has since pulled back to about $118,000—the Crypto Professor believes that BTC is on track to reach a new all-time high soon. He places the next major target at $129,948, based on the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level, a popular technical indicator used by traders to predict price movements.
According to his analysis, Bitcoin has also built strong support around the $110,000 and $100,000 levels. These are previous consolidation zones and also align with the 1.0 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively. In case of a price dip, these levels could act as a cushion and prevent a deeper decline. If Bitcoin manages to hold these support zones and gains enough buying pressure, the path to $130,000 becomes more plausible.
However, both analysts agree on one point: the next few weeks are critical. Either Bitcoin breaks through to a new ATH, confirming continued bullish momentum, or it slips into a deeper correction phase that could set the entire market back significantly.
For now, Bitcoin investors are left watching the charts and market signals closely. If history repeats itself and the expanded flat correction plays out, a sharp sell-off could hit the market hard. But if BTC defies expectations and surges to new heights, it could reignite strong bullish momentum and pave the way for broader gains across the crypto space.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains positive, short-term price action carries high stakes. If BTC fails to break past its previous all-time high soon, it may be vulnerable to a deep correction. Traders and investors should proceed with caution, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels as Bitcoin approaches a decisive turning point.
