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Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week with a 1.72% decline despite the long-awaited resolution of the US-China tariff conflict. The agreement, which eased months of trade tension between the world’s two largest economies, initially sparked optimism across global markets. However, Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies failed to capitalize on the news, reflecting broader investor caution amid growing uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy move.
Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also followed Bitcoin’s sluggish performance, slipping 2.55% and 4.76% respectively over the week. Analysts suggest that the crypto market’s muted response to positive macroeconomic developments highlights a weakening of bullish momentum following a month of volatile trading.
US-China Summit Brings Relief, But Crypto Lags Behind
The breakthrough came during the late-October summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In a bid to cool trade tensions, China agreed to several key US demands — including delaying rare earth export restrictions for one year and resuming US soybean imports. In exchange, the US pledged to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%.
The agreement was welcomed by traditional financial markets. Gold prices, which had surged amid trade war fears, dropped back to around $3,990 per ounce — near pre-escalation levels. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 2.7% from its October 10 low, supported by improved investor sentiment and solid corporate earnings.
However, Bitcoin failed to join the rally. By Sunday, BTC traded around $110,000, down roughly 9.4% from its price before the October 10 market crash. The event, which saw an estimated $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated, appears to have sapped the speculative momentum that fueled Bitcoin’s prior rally.
On-chain analysts note that after such large-scale liquidations, it often takes time for market confidence and trading volume to recover. This hesitation, they say, explains why Bitcoin remains subdued despite favorable macroeconomic news.
Powell’s Rate Cut Warning Dampens Market Optimism
Another key factor weighing on Bitcoin’s performance was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments regarding the US monetary outlook. Following the October 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed announced a 0.25% interest rate cut and confirmed it would end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program by December 1 — both typically bullish signals for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Yet, Powell’s remarks during the press conference surprised investors. He hinted that the Fed might pause rate cuts in December, introducing new uncertainty into market expectations. Before his statement, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 91.5% probability of another rate cut in December. After his comments, that probability plummeted to just 55%, sparking an immediate 2% drop in Bitcoin’s price.
Although the likelihood of a December rate cut has since recovered to 70%, the mixed signals have left traders on edge. For crypto investors, lower interest rates usually translate into higher liquidity and greater risk appetite — both supportive for Bitcoin prices. As such, the possibility of a Fed pause is being viewed as a temporary headwind for BTC.
Federal Reserve Officials Reinforce Cautious Tone
In the days following Powell’s remarks, several Federal Reserve officials publicly backed his cautious stance. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic praised Powell for accurately reflecting the diversity of opinions within the central bank, while other policymakers hinted that further rate cuts may depend on the strength of upcoming economic data.
This cautious messaging has created new uncertainty across both traditional and digital asset markets. Analysts believe that, while the US-China truce has reduced one layer of geopolitical risk, the Fed’s evolving policy stance has replaced it with monetary uncertainty — making it harder for risk assets like Bitcoin to sustain rallies.
Macro Data in Focus: Key Events This Week
Looking ahead, traders are turning their attention to a busy week of US macroeconomic releases that could shape the Fed’s next decision. Key data points include:
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Tuesday: JOLTs Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
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Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Report
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Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims
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Friday: University of Michigan Inflation Expectations Index
Stronger-than-expected job and inflation data could strengthen the case for a rate hold in December, potentially adding pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, softer data might revive expectations of continued monetary easing — a scenario that could provide a short-term boost to the crypto market.
Additionally, several Fed officials — including Governor Lisa D. Cook, Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman, and Governors Michael S. Barr and Christopher J. Waller — are scheduled to deliver speeches this week. Market participants will closely monitor their statements for hints about the central bank’s policy direction.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. Some argue that BTC’s resilience above the $108,000–$110,000 zone indicates strong long-term support. Others caution that without renewed institutional inflows or positive macro catalysts, Bitcoin could face continued consolidation.
For now, the cryptocurrency market appears to be in a holding pattern — waiting for either confirmation of easing monetary policy or fresh signs of economic slowdown that could prompt risk-on sentiment.
Until then, Bitcoin’s price may remain range-bound, reflecting a delicate balance between macro uncertainty and investor optimism about the broader digital asset sector.
