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The Bitcoin-focused business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) may soon face a new wave of financial pressure. According to a recent JPMorgan report, the company could see over $2.8 billion in outflows if MSCI removes it from its global equity indices. If other major index providers follow suit, total outflows could climb to $11.6 billion, marking one of the largest index-related liquidity shifts ever seen for a crypto-connected company. This comes at a time when Strategy’s share price has already endured a steep decline, falling more than 40% in the past month as Bitcoin struggles to hold support.
MSCI’s Potential Removal Could Trigger Massive Outflows
JPMorgan analysts explained that Strategy’s presence in MSCI’s widely followed indices has allowed both retail and institutional investors to gain indirect Bitcoin exposure simply by holding index-tracking products. If MSCI decides to remove the company, that exposure would rapidly unwind.
The banking giant noted that index-tracking funds own a significant portion of Strategy’s shares. Any forced rebalancing could create a sharp drop in liquidity and further price pressure.
MSCI is currently reviewing a proposal to exclude companies whose primary business involves accumulating Bitcoin or other digital assets, especially when those holdings represent 50% or more of total corporate assets. Strategy falls directly into this category due to its massive Bitcoin treasury strategy.
The consultation period runs until the end of the year, with a decision expected by January 15.
Why Strategy Is at Risk
Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy—originally pioneered by Executive Chair Michael Saylor—has made it the largest public holder of Bitcoin. According to SaylorTracker, Strategy currently holds 386,700 BTC, valued at over $56 billion, depending on market price.
But the company’s stock price has been battered recently. Despite Bitcoin trading around the $87,000 range, Strategy’s market value has dropped to $51 billion, giving it a 0.90 premium against its Bitcoin holdings. This is a dramatic decline from its mNAV premium of 2.7 just a year ago.
JPMorgan analysts argue that the recent price decline is less about Bitcoin weakness and more about fears related to potential index exclusion. If the company exits multiple indices—including the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000—investor sentiment may cool further.
Index Exclusion Could Hurt Liquidity and Capital Access
According to JPMorgan, the consequences of being removed from major indices extend beyond short-term selling pressure. The analysts highlighted several long-term risks:
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Reduced liquidity due to lower index-related trading
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Difficulty raising capital, both equity and debt
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Reduced visibility among institutional investors
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Less favorable trading conditions, affecting volume and volatility
While active fund managers are not obligated to follow index changes, many use index weightings as portfolio benchmarks. This means exclusion typically results in broad selling, regardless of company fundamentals.
Saylor Rejects Rumors of Selling Bitcoin
Recent speculation has suggested that Strategy might be liquidating portions of its Bitcoin stash to soften the impact of market volatility. Michael Saylor dismissed such claims last week, reiterating that the company continues to hold its treasury BTC with a long-term focus.
Despite this reassurance, Strategy’s stock continues to slide, falling another 5.1% on Thursday to $177.13, according to Yahoo Finance data.
Bitcoin’s Price Drop Adds Pressure—but Isn’t the Main Factor
Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% over the past month, dipping to around $87,100 and turning negative for the year. However, JPMorgan analysts stress that Strategy’s recent performance is not tightly correlated with Bitcoin’s decline.
Instead, the primary driver is the risk of losing index status, which would remove one of the biggest institutional pipelines for indirect Bitcoin exposure.
Macro concerns, including weaker jobs data and reduced expectations for interest-rate cuts, have also weighed on the broader crypto market. Prediction market Myriad shows only a 20% probability that Bitcoin will rebound toward $115,000 in its next move—compared to a much higher probability just a week earlier.
What Happens Next?
Investors now wait for MSCI’s January decision, which could reshape Strategy’s market position and influence the broader landscape for publicly traded Bitcoin-exposed companies. If index providers remove Strategy, it may trigger a domino effect across other firms with sizable digital-asset reserves.
For now, all eyes are on MSCI—and on how Strategy navigates the most significant structural challenge it has faced since adopting its Bitcoin-first treasury model.
