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Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to its lowest point in nearly a month, slipping under $109,000 as on-chain data signals potential exhaustion in the current market cycle. Analysts suggest that profit-taking by long-term holders and slowing ETF inflows could mark the beginning of a cooling phase after months of strong bullish momentum.
Bitcoin Slides Below Key Support Levels
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin fell to $108,700 on Coinbase late Thursday, breaking below the crucial $112,000 support zone. The decline comes after the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut failed to generate a sustained rally in risk assets.
While BTC has not yet revisited its September 1 low of $107,500, analysts warn that the current price action is increasingly vulnerable. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, noted that the recovery from earlier dips “quickly lost momentum,” leaving Bitcoin at risk of another wave of stop-loss selling.
“This comes at a time when many are positioned for a Q4 rally,” Thielen wrote in a market note. “The bigger surprise now may not be a surge higher, but a correction instead.”
Long-Term Holders Lock in $3.4M in Profits
Data from Glassnode highlights that long-term Bitcoin holders have realized 3.4 million BTC in profits, a level historically seen near major market cycle tops. These profit-taking events suggest that some of the most experienced investors are reducing exposure, potentially signaling fatigue in the current uptrend.
Glassnode’s latest report added that profit-taking exceeded 90% of coins moved on-chain at three separate points this cycle, with the market recently stepping back from the third such peak. “Probabilities favor a cooling phase ahead,” the analytics firm stated.
Historically, these patterns have coincided with exhaustion phases in previous bull markets, leading to either prolonged consolidations or deeper corrections.
Glassnode: Cooling Phase Likely Ahead
The analytics provider emphasized that the realized profit/loss ratio shows signs of strain, pointing to an overextended market. When profit-taking reaches such extremes, momentum often fades as demand struggles to keep pace with supply entering exchanges.
This raises the risk that Bitcoin may undergo a reset, allowing new capital to flow in at lower levels before the next sustained rally. For many analysts, this cooling period is a natural and even necessary part of long-term bull market cycles.
SOPR Data Signals Stress Among Holders
Another red flag highlighted by Glassnode is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss. Current data shows SOPR hovering at 1.01, indicating that some Bitcoin holders are beginning to sell at a loss.
In bull markets, SOPR dips below 1 can flag the end of seller exhaustion and precede rebounds. In bear markets, however, rejections around 1 often signal renewed downside pressure. Thielen warned that this precarious level could add to the market’s instability.
Adding to concerns, the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is trending toward zero. This means newer investors are increasingly at risk of cutting losses, which could accelerate selling pressure if support levels break.
Institutional Demand Fails to Match Selling Pressure
Institutional flows, which played a major role in fueling Bitcoin’s run-up earlier in 2025, appear to have slowed in recent weeks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, saw record-breaking inflows throughout the first half of the year, but this trend has cooled.
Unless demand from institutions realigns with retail investor activity, Glassnode analysts warn that Bitcoin could face a deeper retracement. “The risk of deeper cooling remains high, highlighting a macro structure that increasingly resembles exhaustion,” the report concluded.
Analysts Split on What Comes Next
Despite growing caution, not all market participants are bearish. Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory heading into Q4. He believes macroeconomic headwinds will ease, opening the door for renewed institutional inflows and stronger price momentum.
In contrast, analysts like Thielen maintain a neutral stance, calling for patience until Bitcoin reclaims $115,000. “Unless Bitcoin can reclaim this level, the bias is toward further correction,” Thielen stated.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $109,645, down 6.5% over the past week.
The Road Ahead for Bitcoin
The latest correction underscores the fragile balance between profit-taking and fresh demand in the Bitcoin market. While on-chain indicators suggest exhaustion, they also reflect a natural cooling process within broader bullish cycles.
If history is any guide, periods of heavy realized profits and declining ETF inflows often precede consolidation phases that reset market sentiment before the next leg higher.
For now, traders and investors alike are watching closely as Bitcoin hovers near multi-week lows. Whether BTC reclaims $115,000 or slips back toward $107,500 could determine the tone of the final quarter of 2025.
