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Bitcoin’s long-term investors have offloaded more than $43 billion worth of BTC over the past month, according to data from CryptoQuant. The wave of selling, equivalent to roughly 405,000 BTC, has coincided with a market cooldown often referred to as “Red October.”
Despite the apparent intensity of the sell-off, market analysts argue that it’s part of a natural rotation typical of bull market cycles, rather than an early sign of weakness. The sentiment across the crypto market remains cautiously positive, with experts highlighting that demand fundamentals — particularly from institutions — are evolving, not disappearing.
Long-Term Holders Trim Positions Amid Market Cooldown
Data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders, typically defined as those who have held their coins for over five months, have been taking profits amid ongoing market consolidation.
A notable transaction involved an early Bitcoin address, known as 195DJ, which sold 13,004 BTC in October alone. The same address transferred an additional 1,200 BTC (worth approximately $132 million) to the Kraken exchange over the weekend — a move often interpreted as preparation for liquidation.
Analysts point out that similar large-scale holder activity was recorded during previous bull phases — notably in March 2024 and December 2024 to January 2025 — both of which preceded renewed price rallies.
While the outflows from long-term holders appear substantial, on-chain experts emphasize that they reflect profit-taking rather than panic.
Institutional Demand Slows, Pressuring Prices
At the same time, institutional demand for Bitcoin has temporarily slowed, further adding to the market’s short-term softness.
For the first time in seven months, net institutional purchases fell below the daily Bitcoin mining supply, signaling that buyers are not absorbing coins as quickly as they enter circulation.
Additionally, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled after months of heavy inflows. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — the largest Bitcoin ETF — recorded less than 600 BTC in weekly net inflows over the past three weeks, a sharp drop from its earlier trend.
This imbalance between rising supply and reduced institutional demand has contributed to Bitcoin’s gradual decline in recent weeks.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, explained the dynamic:
“Instead of looking only at long-term holder distribution, it’s important to ask: is there enough demand to absorb the supply at higher prices? For now, the answer has been no — which is why prices are softening.”
However, Moreno added that on longer timescales, Bitcoin demand continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in past cycles.
Analysts: Profit-Taking Is Normal in Bull Markets
Despite the $43 billion figure grabbing headlines, several leading analysts argue that this phase of selling is a healthy and expected rotation during a bull market.
Credible Crypto, a popular market analyst, believes the activity reflects strategic redistribution from early holders (“OGs”) to institutional and retail investors entering through regulated products.
“This doesn’t mean the top is in. We see this kind of selling every cycle. Long-term holders are distributing coins to new market participants, and price is holding up well despite the sell pressure,” the analyst wrote.
Willy Woo, a respected on-chain researcher, echoed that sentiment.
“Long-term holder is a misnomer. It simply means coins older than five months. Those coins always move in bull markets — they’re transferring to new investors or into custodial structures,” Woo explained.
Woo added that in 2025, part of this activity represents a custody rotation toward corporate treasuries and institutional custody platforms — a trend that strengthens Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a macro asset.
Bitcoin Price Holds Firm Despite Selling Pressure
While profit-taking by long-term holders and reduced ETF demand have introduced headwinds, Bitcoin’s price performance remains resilient relative to the size of the outflows.
According to BeInCrypto Markets, BTC has declined by just over 6% in the past week, and as of press time, it trades near $107,046, down 0.45% in the last 24 hours.
Historically, Bitcoin has endured much sharper pullbacks following similar distribution events, often rebounding strongly once new market participants absorb the selling volume.
Long-Term Outlook: Rotation, Not Reversal
Most analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains firmly bullish. The ongoing redistribution is being viewed as part of a maturation process, where early holders transfer assets to institutional custodians, ETFs, and corporate treasuries — setting the stage for more stable, widespread adoption.
This process mirrors trends observed in 2017, 2020, and 2024 — each time resulting in new capital inflows and higher price discovery once the selling subsided.
With macroeconomic conditions stabilizing, on-chain activity rising, and liquidity cycles improving, the bullish structure remains intact, even as short-term traders grapple with consolidation.
Conclusion: A Necessary Step in Bitcoin’s Market Evolution
The $43 billion sell-off by long-term holders has stirred debate, but for seasoned market observers, it’s a reminder of how Bitcoin’s ownership base evolves in cycles.
Each phase of distribution brings new participants — from retail to institutions — and strengthens the asset’s market depth. While short-term volatility may persist, the long-term view remains unchanged: Bitcoin continues to transition from speculative investment to a globally held, institutionally supported financial asset.
For bulls, the current sell-off isn’t a sign of weakness — it’s part of Bitcoin’s natural rhythm on its march toward broader adoption.
