Bitcoin (BTC) remains perched precariously above the $100,000 level after a volatile weekend marked by escalating geopolitical tensions. Following U.S. military airstrikes on two of Iran’s nuclear facilities, global markets braced for potential fallout. While traditional equities were largely insulated by the weekend timing, Bitcoin bore the brunt of the initial macro shock.

The flagship cryptocurrency briefly dipped to $100,979, marking a 1.17% decline in the immediate aftermath of the news. However, that drop triggered a swift response from the derivatives market. A short squeeze worth over $50 million flushed out over-leveraged traders, pushing BTC back above $102K in a sharp 2.4% rebound.

This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has defended the $100K level in June. Earlier in the month, a more dramatic 3% drop saw BTC fall to $100,424 before rebounding nearly 10% to reclaim the $110K zone. That rally, driven by strong spot demand and aggressive liquidation of bearish positions, highlighted the strength of the $100K psychological support.

But whether Bitcoin can replicate that performance in the current macro climate remains to be seen.

Tensions Intensify, but Bulls Hold Ground

At present, $100,000 remains a key battleground. This level is more than just a round number—it’s a critical structural support for traders and institutions alike. Bitcoin’s swift recovery from its weekend lows suggests that bulls are still defending this level aggressively.

The market reaction underscores crypto’s heightened sensitivity to macro uncertainty. The U.S. airstrikes, coupled with Donald Trump’s warning of a “force far greater” in the event of retaliation from Iran, sent jitters across speculative assets. Over $711 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across major exchanges in just 24 hours, according to data from CoinGlass.

Despite the broader sell-off, Bitcoin managed to recover relatively quickly. This resilience points to strong bid-side liquidity at lower levels, hinting at underlying accumulation—especially from entities seeking to buy the dip amid panic.

Funding Rates Flash Bearish Bias

Still, the battle is far from over. Funding rates on BTC perpetual futures turned negative following the dip, a sign that traders are paying to hold short positions. This mirrors the market’s mood in early June, just before BTC’s brief breakdown and subsequent recovery.

Currently trading near $102,400, Bitcoin sits in a tight consolidation range. The market appears to be recalibrating as traders reduce risk exposure and wait for clarity. A $62.63 million liquidation cluster looms at $101,502, according to the 12-hour liquidation heatmap, meaning any fresh downside could trigger another wave of selling.

The tug-of-war between bulls defending support and bears betting on a breakdown makes this a critical juncture.

What Happens Next for BTC?

The odds slightly favor the bulls—for now. The defense of $100K in the face of macro headwinds signals strong hands absorbing volatility. Moreover, historical precedent from earlier in the month suggests that these flushes can serve as springboards for short-term rallies.

If Bitcoin can maintain support above $100K and neutralize the bearish pressure from futures markets, a move back toward the $103,500–$105,000 resistance zone is likely. This would mimic the post-dip rebound observed a few weeks ago.

However, should the geopolitical crisis deepen, or if market confidence wavers again, the $100K level could finally crack. A breakdown would expose the $97,000–$98,000 zone as the next major support area, where another round of buyers may step in.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is once again proving its resilience in the face of uncertainty. While the $100K level continues to act as a magnet for both buyers and sellers, the market remains on edge. With funding rates bearish and macro risks unresolved, traders are treading cautiously.

The next few days will be critical. Whether BTC breaks down or rebounds, the $100K zone is shaping up as the pivot point for Bitcoin’s next major move.