Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has recently marked a significant milestone in its price trajectory, with experts suggesting that it may never trade below $47,000 again. This is largely due to a rise in Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200WMA), a critical indicator that smooths out short-term fluctuations and offers insight into the cryptocurrency’s long-term price behavior.

On Sunday, May 18, Bitcoin reached a local peak of $106,000, its highest level since early February 2025. This surge was a part of a volatile week, with Bitcoin’s price fluctuating between $101,000 and $106,000. As of May 19, Bitcoin’s price stood at $102,761, reflecting a 0.89% decline over 24 hours and a 1.81% dip over the past week. Despite these short-term fluctuations, several key indicators are beginning to show positive shifts, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the verge of entering a new phase of growth.

200-Week Moving Average Breaks $47,000 Mark

Blockstream CEO Adam Back has confirmed that Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average has surpassed the critical $47,000 threshold. This surge marks a significant moment in the analysis of Bitcoin’s long-term price trends. The 200WMA serves as an essential tool for assessing Bitcoin’s floor price—essentially a price level the asset tends not to drop below. Back has previously indicated that when Bitcoin’s price is above this moving average, it’s less likely to dip beneath it in the future.

Historically, the 200WMA has shown notable growth during bull markets, with significant rises seen during earlier cycles like 2012–2014 and 2017–2018. During these periods, Bitcoin experienced explosive rallies, with the 200WMA growing at an accelerated rate of 10–15% per month. By contrast, during bear markets, the moving average tends to flatten or increase at a much slower pace.

Since October 2024, the 200WMA has steadily increased from $40,000 to its current level above $47,000, marking a significant change in Bitcoin’s price behavior. While the rise is not as steep as during previous euphoric bull markets, the trend suggests that Bitcoin may now be entering an early expansion phase, with steady growth expected over the coming months.

Gradual but Steady Growth Expected

The 200WMA’s steady upward movement indicates that Bitcoin is entering a period of gradual but sustained growth. According to long-term chart patterns and color-coded indicators, the 200WMA is rising at a rate of 2–6% per month, signaling an early stage of expansion. These visual indicators show a shift from a blue-to-light purple color range, which is typically associated with periods of slow yet consistent growth.

This type of gradual growth aligns with Bitcoin’s current market behavior, where large, aggressive rallies have not yet materialized. Instead, Bitcoin’s price appears to be forming a solid base, preparing for a potential future surge. The sustained movement above the 200WMA suggests that Bitcoin is positioning itself for a more substantial price increase in the near future.

Momentum Indicators Turn Positive

While Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement. On-chain analyst Willy Woo observed that Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has significantly decreased from its previous peak in 2017. In that year, Bitcoin saw triple-digit growth rates, but by 2020, following the entrance of large institutional players, the CAGR dropped to a more modest 30–40%.

Woo noted that this trend is likely to continue as Bitcoin absorbs more capital and shifts from being a highly speculative asset to a more stable macro asset. In the long term, Woo suggests that Bitcoin’s CAGR could stabilize around 8%, aligning with broader macroeconomic trends such as global GDP growth and monetary expansion.

New Higher Highs on the Horizon

Another positive sign for Bitcoin came on May 18, when the cryptocurrency recorded its highest daily candle close ever, finishing above $105,000. Analysts like Rekt Capital believe this could signal the formation of a new higher high in Bitcoin’s price over the long term. Despite a short-term dip back to around $102,000, the structural indicators remain strong, suggesting that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory is far from over.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average rising above $47,000, coupled with positive momentum indicators, suggests that the cryptocurrency is entering a period of stable growth. With the potential for further price increases and the market’s underlying strength, many experts believe that Bitcoin may never trade below the $47,000 mark again. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its long-term outlook remains positive, positioning it for continued growth in the years ahead.