Bitcoin (BTC) recently rallied off a June 23 low near $99,700, but its upward momentum stalled as it tested the critical $108,800 resistance. On-chain and derivatives data suggest that whales are stepping aside while retail investors attack short positions, raising the likelihood of a sharp pullback toward $100,000.

On June 30, Bitcoin traded close to the historically significant $108,800 level but closed the day around $107,135, reflecting a pattern of rejection observed in previous cycles. Embedded within this price action, technical indicators are flashing caution. The Stochastic RSI has formed a bearish Death Cross, with the %K line crossing below the %D line while still above the overbought threshold of 80. This combination signals waning bullish momentum and heightens the risk of a deeper retracement if resistance proves durable.

Derivatives market trends further reveal bearish pressure building. As of June 30, Binance’s Long/Short Accounts ratio stood at 0.61, meaning only 37.97% of accounts held long positions. OKX showed an even more skewed ratio of 0.59, indicating growing short exposure across major derivatives platforms. Both exchanges also recorded significant trading volumes—$13.05 billion on Binance and $6.62 billion on OKX—tying high liquidity to this pessimistic positioning. These factors point to collective expectations of a downturn or at least a consolidation near current levels.

Adding to the concern, average futures order size and overall open interest have declined notably, suggesting that whales are reducing exposure. According to CryptoQuant, average futures order sizes dropped sharply on June 30—a sign that larger, institutional players are stepping away. Meanwhile, total open interest fell to approximately $34.7 billion. A reduction in both order size and open interest typically signals lower institutional involvement and reduced available liquidity, making it harder for the market to sustain upward moves without a fresh catalyst.

In contrast, retail investors appear to be stepping into the breach. As institutional players retreat, smaller traders are increasingly entering the market, particularly in short positions. These dynamics often create heightened price volatility, and when leverage skews heavily toward retail positions, the market can be more vulnerable to sudden reversals if broader sentiment shifts.

If whale activity remains subdued and retail traders continue to bet on short-term declines, Bitcoin may retest the $100,000 mark. That said, the ongoing resistance at $108,800, combined with the Death Cross on the Stochastic RSI and short-heavy sentiment, supports the case for a pullback.

On the other hand, bulls will be watching for a weekly close above key resistance levels between $107,700 and $108,800. A clean break with strong volume could shift leverage dynamics sharply. In previous cycles, Bitcoin rallied steeply after overcoming sustained resistance, triggering waves of short squeezes. If that scenario repeats, retail traders in short positions could see forced liquidations, triggering rapid upside movement.

But for now, the market remains in a delicate balance. Whales have retreated, taking liquidity with them. Retail traders are holding short positions, and technical indicators lean bearish. With open interest low, Bitcoin is lacking the institutional fuel often needed to sustain a breakout. Weak volumes can amplify sell-offs, especially when a few large orders impact price direction disproportionately.

Whether BTC plunges further or rebounds depends on the battle around $108,800. A sustained breach would likely force a short squeeze, potentially catapulting the price back toward $115,000 or beyond. But if resistance holds and the Stochastic Death Cross remains intact, a retracement to $100,000 looks increasingly plausible.

Retail traders should remain cautious. While short positions appear dominant, leverage can work both ways, and sudden whale re-entry—or a surprise macro catalyst—could rapidly reverse the trend. Tight risk management and clear stop levels are essential in this high-stakes environment.

In summary, Bitcoin’s internal dynamics reflect a tug-of-war between waning institutional support and rising retail speculation. The technical setup around $108,800 is critical. A breakout could trigger explosive upside, but failure to hold that level could lead to a pullback toward $100,000. Traders should monitor leverage trends, whale behavior, and key support zones to assess whether BTC is preparing for another flush—or a fresh run higher.