Community Trust ScoreVerified
Bitcoin is once again commanding global attention as it trades close to the $118,000 mark, a level that places it within striking distance of new records. The rally comes at a time when traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold are also hitting all-time highs, creating a backdrop of optimism across financial markets.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research and Portfolio Manager at VanEck, believes the world’s largest cryptocurrency still has room to climb. In a recent interview, Sigel explained why Bitcoin has not yet displayed the kind of overheated signals that typically suggest a market top.
No Signs of Overextension
A common concern among investors is whether Bitcoin’s rise has gone too far, too quickly. Sigel pushed back on this idea, highlighting two critical indicators his team tracks.
The first is the cost of leveraged positions in Bitcoin’s futures market. Historically, when funding rates rise into the double digits, it signals aggressive speculation and often marks the end of rallies. At present, however, funding rates remain at moderate levels, suggesting that leverage is not dangerously high.
The second measure is unrealized profits across Bitcoin addresses. When the majority of holders sit on outsized paper gains, forward returns usually weaken. But Sigel emphasized that the data does not currently show extreme profits being locked in. This, he argued, means the rally has not yet reached the euphoric stage that often precedes a reversal.
Bitcoin Miners Ride the AI Wave
While Bitcoin itself may not look overheated, one corner of the ecosystem is attracting attention: mining companies. Many of the biggest publicly traded miners have seen their stock prices double or even triple this year.
Interestingly, much of this growth is not just tied to Bitcoin production. Miners are increasingly renting out their power and data infrastructure to artificial intelligence firms, opening up a secondary revenue stream that has supercharged investor interest.
However, Sigel offered a word of caution. The extraordinary gains in mining stocks could make them vulnerable to corrections, especially since AI-linked equities have become heavily correlated with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. A pullback in the broader technology sector could spill over into Bitcoin miners, creating what he described as a “short-term washout” in valuations.
Market Sentiment Remains in Check
For the remainder of 2025, Sigel said his focus will be on market sentiment. He noted that traders often oscillate between greed and fear, and that extremes on either side can shape short-term moves.
“We’re nowhere near the greed markers,” he explained, suggesting that Bitcoin investors are not displaying the kind of euphoric behavior that would raise red flags. For now, the sentiment remains balanced enough to support further gains.
Equities Provide a Strong Backdrop
Sigel also pointed to the strength of U.S. equities as a supportive factor for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The largest technology companies, which dominate the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, continue to post strong balance sheets and robust profit margins.
He contrasted today’s environment with the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. Unlike then, when companies were often valued on hype rather than earnings, today’s market leaders are highly profitable and generate consistent cash flow. This provides a stronger foundation for risk-taking among investors, including allocations to digital assets.
Will the Rally Extend Into 2026?
The big question is how long Bitcoin’s rally can last. Some analysts have warned that the traditional four-year cycle, which historically drives peaks and troughs around Bitcoin’s halving events, could suggest the market is approaching a top.
Sigel disagrees. He believes the cycle remains intact but may still have more room to run, possibly stretching into 2026. He also flagged U.S. political dynamics as an important factor, with upcoming midterm elections and ongoing regulatory debates potentially shaping investor confidence.
“I still lean toward more tailwinds first,” Sigel said. “We’ll let the market tell us the rest.” His comments highlight a cautiously optimistic stance—acknowledging risks while maintaining confidence in Bitcoin’s structural uptrend.
Risks on the Horizon
Despite the optimism, investors should remain aware of potential risks. Rising interest rates, regulatory uncertainty, and sharp corrections in overvalued sectors like AI could weigh on Bitcoin and related assets. Additionally, while current on-chain and futures indicators remain stable, markets can change quickly.
Sigel’s perspective suggests that investors should watch closely for shifts in leverage, unrealized profits, and sentiment to determine when the cycle might be reaching its limits.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s climb toward $118,000 has reignited debates over whether the bull market has more fuel left. According to VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, the signs of euphoria that often mark a peak are not yet present. With moderate leverage, balanced sentiment, and a supportive backdrop from equities, Bitcoin may still have room to extend its rally into 2026.
For investors, the message is clear: while risks remain, the data does not yet point to a market top. If Sigel is correct, Bitcoin’s next major chapter could still be ahead.
