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Bitcoin’s latest downturn is being fueled primarily by mid-cycle holders, while the oldest long-term whales continue to hold firm, according to asset manager VanEck’s new “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report. The findings suggest that despite intense selling pressure in the broader market, the most seasoned holders remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Mid-Cycle Wallets Lead the Latest Wave of Selling
VanEck’s analysis shows that the majority of Bitcoin being sold during the current market downturn comes from wallets that last moved coins within the past three to five years. These mid-cycle holders typically represent traders who entered the market during earlier bullish phases and are now rotating capital in response to volatility.
In contrast, the oldest cohort—wallets holding Bitcoin for more than five years—has remained “remarkably steady.” VanEck reports that more than 278,000 BTC have aged into this group over the past two years, reinforcing long-term conviction. These wallets show little sign of panic, even as sentiment in the broader market weakens.
Bitcoin Trades Near Multi-Month Lows
The report arrives at a time when Bitcoin is struggling near multi-month lows. As of late Thursday evening, Bitcoin was trading around $86,696, down more than 3% on the day and over 31% below its October all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko.
Analysts have identified several factors contributing to the decline, including widespread forced liquidations, increased offshore derivatives volatility, and distributions by some long-term holders. The market has also been shaken by macroeconomic uncertainty and a large deleveraging event earlier in October.
Analysts Weigh In: OG Selling, Derivatives Volatility, and Macro Pressure
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews that older, large-balance holders—often called “OGs”—have been selling for weeks. He attributes the broader downturn to three major forces: long-term holder distribution, an unstable macro backdrop, and the aggressive deleveraging event on October 10. According to Puckrin, “a flood of supply” has been hitting the market, contributing to sustained downside pressure.
Meanwhile, Carol Alexander, finance professor at the University of Sussex, said Bitcoin’s recent swings also point to aggressive offshore trading activity. Professional firms operating on these platforms use order-book tactics such as spoofing and laddering to create rapid price movements. These firms, she said, “care only that the price moves quickly,” not necessarily where it settles.
Mid-Cycle Selling Aligns With a Shift in Holder Behavior
VanEck emphasizes that the decline in the 3–5 year age band—down 32% over the past two years—is not a sign of mass capitulation among ultra-long-term holders. Rather, it reflects typical cycle turnover among traders who accumulated Bitcoin during past bullish market phases.
This rotation contrasts sharply with the behavior of decade-long holders, who continue to accumulate and hold. Their resilience suggests that long-term conviction in Bitcoin as a macro asset remains unshaken.
Futures Market Shows Signs of a Positioning Reset
VanEck’s report also highlights a notable reset in Bitcoin’s futures market. Open interest in perpetual futures has fallen 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since Oct. 9, indicating that speculative traders have significantly reduced leverage.
Funding rates have now fallen to levels historically associated with “washed-out” market conditions—periods that often precede short-term recovery or consolidation phases. This contraction in open interest suggests that much of the excess leverage that fueled earlier volatility has been cleared from the system.
Smaller Whales Are Accumulating While Larger Ones Trim
A deeper look into wallet cohorts reveals another important trend. Wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC—often considered mid-sized whales—have increased their balances 9% over the last six months and 23% over the past year.
Meanwhile, the largest whale cohort has trimmed some of its holdings, aligning with broader market distribution patterns. This shift indicates that while some big players are reducing exposure, mid-sized investors continue to buy into weakness.
A “Reset State” That May Precede a Tactical Rebound
VanEck concludes that the convergence of three factors—long-term holder stability, cohort rotation, and a futures-market reset—has pushed Bitcoin into what the firm describes as a “reset state.”
Historically, similar periods have often preceded tactical rebounds or short-term recovery phases. While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, the latest data suggests that the market may be approaching the end of its current corrective cycle.
For now, Bitcoin remains under pressure, but the behavior of its oldest holders continues to offer a signal of long-term confidence even as mid-cycle sellers drive short-term volatility.
