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Bitcoin’s price slipped below $111,000 on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision failed to inspire market confidence. Despite a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting that further cuts were “not a foregone conclusion” triggered a quick sell-off across the crypto market.
Bitcoin fell nearly 3%, reaching an intraday low of $110,000, while Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies also moved lower. Analysts say the decline reflected disappointment among traders who had expected stronger dovish guidance from the Fed.
Prediction Markets Turn Cautious
The broader sentiment shift was visible on prediction platform Myriad, where Bitcoin bullish odds dropped sharply. The percentage of traders betting on BTC to rise toward $120,000 fell from 75% to just 58%, while expectations for a potential retest of $100,000 grew stronger.
This sudden change suggests a rising wave of short-term caution among traders, even as long-term investors remain confident. Analysts note that the market reaction likely stemmed from a “sell-the-news” pattern often seen when events are already priced in before they occur.
ETF Inflows Show Institutional Confidence
Despite the market drop, institutional inflows into Bitcoin remain strong. According to recent data, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $202.48 million on October 28, pushing cumulative inflows to $62.3 billion. The data highlights a growing divergence between short-term trader sentiment and long-term institutional accumulation.
“This isn’t panic selling—it’s more of a tactical reset,” said one analyst. “Institutional investors are still buying, but retail traders are reacting to Powell’s tone.”
Technical Indicators Turn Bearish in the Short Term
On the technical front, Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 44.87, indicating neutral-to-bearish momentum. On the four-hour chart, RSI is near 36, approaching oversold territory and suggesting increasing selling pressure.
The Average Directional Index (ADX)—which measures trend strength—reads 17.29 on the daily chart and 24.22 on the four-hour chart. Both readings indicate weak momentum, confirming that Bitcoin currently lacks a clear directional trend.
Moving averages also show a mixed outlook. While the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA, signaling that the long-term bullish structure is intact, the shorter-term charts show a bearish crossover, often referred to as a “death cross.” This pattern typically reflects short-term weakness and could trigger additional selling if confirmed by volume.
Why the Fed Cut Didn’t Help Bitcoin
Markets tend to react not to the actual events but to how those events compare with expectations. Since the 0.25% rate cut was fully priced in by futures markets—with 97% of traders expecting it—there was little room for a surprise rally.
Instead, Powell’s cautious tone about future cuts erased optimism that the Fed might pursue a series of deeper easing measures. “When a move is fully expected, there’s no new catalyst,” said an analyst from Dastan Research. “Traders were hoping for a signal of aggressive policy easing, and when that didn’t come, they sold.”
Historically, lower interest rates benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by making borrowing cheaper and increasing appetite for higher-yield opportunities. However, those effects typically take time to filter through the market. In the short term, the sell-off may reflect traders taking profits after a strong rally earlier this month.
October Rally Loses Steam
Just a day before the Fed decision, Bitcoin was trading near $115,500 with strong bullish indicators and analysts expecting it to close October in the green—continuing the so-called “Uptober” trend. However, with prices now more than 2% below the monthly open, that optimism is fading quickly.
Unless Bitcoin recovers above the $114,200 mark by month’s end, October could end as the first red month since July. Traders will be watching closely for whether BTC can hold key support near $108,000, which could determine the next major move.
For now, sentiment remains fragile. The broader uptrend is still intact, but the combination of Fed uncertainty, weak momentum indicators, and cautious trader behavior suggests that Bitcoin may stay range-bound until a new catalyst emerges.
