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VanEck sees opportunities. Negative funding persists and the hash rate drops, two indicators that have historically preceded significant Bitcoin rallies.
The seven-day funding rate has fallen to about -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023. It’s rare. VanEck analyzed data since 2020, and these periods of negative funding represent only 13.6% of the total sample. But here’s the thing: when it happens, Bitcoin rises in 77% of cases over the next 30 days, with an average return of 11.5%.
When the annual funding drops below -5%, the figures become even more impressive. The 30-day returns average 19.4%, and over 180 days, they climb up to 70%. VanEck notes that 19 of the top 50 best 180-day return windows coincided with these negative funding phases, reinforcing their importance as a contrarian buy signal.
Unusual Pressure on the Network
The 30-day average hash rate has dropped to the 16th and 9th percentiles over 30 and 90-day periods respectively. Similar declines have been observed since December 2025, with a recent 6.7% drop ending on April 15, 2026. This is the densest drop since the mining ban in China in 2021.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown an increase in six of the seven similar declines 90 days later. The median gain? 37.7%. This temporary pressure on the network could indicate a consolidation phase before a significant upcoming rise.
Long-term holders, particularly those who have held their assets for 7 to 10 years or more, have increased their spent volume. But VanEck insists: this doesn’t mean massive sales. This dynamic could reflect strategic adjustments rather than capitulation. Investors are reassessing their positions without necessarily exiting the market.
Derivatives and Cautious Sentiment
Put option premiums compared to spot volume are more than six times their level in April 2024. It’s huge. It reflects a cautious sentiment among investors, a certain reluctance to take aggressive positions in the current context.
The 180-day active supply has dropped to 28.4%, indicating increased dormancy among holders. Investors are choosing to hold their assets rather than sell, likely in anticipation of more favorable market conditions. This wait-and-see strategy adds a layer of complexity to the interpretation of current data.
Bitcoin’s realized volatility has also decreased. It has dropped from about 56% to 41%, linked to easing tensions between the United States and Iran. A more stable market offers a more predictable environment for investors, which could facilitate the entry of new capital.
And so, VanEck identifies a combination of bullish signals. Negative funding and pressure on the hash rate form a reinforced framework for Bitcoin, despite the visible caution in the derivatives markets. Periods of negative funding, although infrequent, have coincided with some of Bitcoin’s best historical performances over six-month periods.
Holders have not massively liquidated their positions despite the increase in their spent volume. This observation suggests a strategy of adjustment to current conditions rather than panic selling. On-chain activity shows that long-term cohorts remain engaged, which could indicate underlying confidence in medium-term return potential.
VanEck concludes that investors looking to capitalize on Bitcoin’s return potential might find an opportunity in the current market setup. The persistent negative funding and the drop in the hash rate, two indicators that have historically preceded significant rallies, combine to create a potentially favorable environment for contrarian buyers.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the historical impact of negative funding on Bitcoin?
Negative funding has led to positive returns in 77% of cases over 30 days, with an average of 11.5%. When annual funding drops below -5%, 30-day returns average 19.4%.
Why is the drop in the hash rate considered bullish?
Bitcoin has shown an increase in six of the seven similar hash rate drops 90 days later, with a median gain of 37.7%. The current drop is the densest since the mining ban in China in 2021.
What does the increase in spent volume by long-term holders mean?
VanEck notes that this increase does not necessarily translate into massive sales but could reflect strategic adjustments rather than capitulation by long-term investors.
