Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has been caught in a tight trading range between $55,000 and $65,000, unable to reclaim its previous highs. Despite the broader crypto market remaining in a bull phase, Bitcoin has struggled to push beyond the $70,000 mark, leaving many traders wondering what’s holding it back.

Why Bitcoin is Struggling to Reach New Highs

One of the key reasons Bitcoin has failed to rally to a new all-time high (ATH) is the large number of BTC holders who purchased their assets between $61,700 and $70,500. According to data from Into The Block, nearly seven million addresses acquired Bitcoin in this price range. With Bitcoin currently trading around $56,500, these traders are sitting on losses, which has led to significant selling pressure whenever BTC approaches the $61,700-$70,500 range.

This phenomenon occurs because traders who are underwater often seek to minimize their losses by selling when prices rise close to their purchase levels. The result is a ceiling that Bitcoin struggles to break, as selling activity increases, preventing the cryptocurrency from gaining the momentum needed to push higher.

The September Effect: A Historically Bearish Month

Adding to Bitcoin’s woes is its historically poor performance in September. Over the last seven years, Bitcoin has closed in the red six times during September, with an average decline of 4.5%. This year appears to be no different, as BTC started the month by dropping from $60,000 to $55,000.

Several factors contribute to this seasonal downturn. Post-halving consolidation, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming United States presidential elections, and the looming overhang of 33 billion dollars worth of BTC supply from government-held assets and recovered holdings from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange all weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s price.

Despite these challenges, some analysts remain optimistic. They point out that Bitcoin has seen positive on-chain movements, with the number of wallets holding more than 100 BTC reaching a 17-month high. This surge in whale holdings suggests that large investors are buying the dip, potentially setting the stage for a strong rally in the fourth quarter of 2024.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?

As Bitcoin navigates this turbulent period, its ability to break out of the $61,700-$70,500 range will likely depend on a confluence of factors. First and foremost, BTC will need significant positive momentum to overcome the selling pressure in this range. This could be driven by a major catalyst, such as institutional investment or a breakthrough in regulatory clarity.

However, the historical trend of bearish Septembers and the broader macroeconomic factors at play suggest that Bitcoin may continue to face headwinds in the near term. Traders and investors should remain cautious, as the path to new highs is fraught with challenges.

In the meantime, the accumulation of Bitcoin by whales could be a positive sign for those with a longer-term perspective. As these large holders continue to buy at current levels, they may provide the support needed to stabilize Bitcoin’s price and set the stage for future gains.

Conclusion: A Waiting Game for Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin’s struggle to break $70,000 reflects the complexities of its current market dynamics. The combination of selling pressure from traders looking to break even and the historical tendency for September to be a challenging month for BTC has created a tough environment for the cryptocurrency.

However, the underlying strength of Bitcoin’s network, as evidenced by the increase in whale holdings, suggests that the longer-term outlook remains positive. For now, Bitcoin bulls may need to exercise patience as they wait for the right conditions to drive the next leg of the rally.