Bitcoin long-term growth outlook has received a powerful boost from a surprising source — sovereign wealth funds and government-managed investment entities. According to a recent note from Standard Chartered, the leading cryptocurrency is still on track to reach an eye-watering price of $500,000 before the end of Donald Trump’s term in the White House.

The British multinational bank has tied its projection to increasing indirect exposure to Bitcoin through shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company known for holding large amounts of BTC on its balance sheet.

Governments Turning to MSTR for Indirect Bitcoin Exposure

In the first quarter of 2025, at least 12 government-linked institutions increased their holdings in MicroStrategy. Collectively, these entities now hold exposure equivalent to 31,000 Bitcoin, highlighting a growing appetite for the asset class among traditionally conservative investors.

Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, noted that sovereign investors are using MicroStrategy as a proxy for Bitcoin in jurisdictions where direct holdings are still restricted by regulation.

“We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” Kendrick explained.

Who’s Buying?

The list of government-related buyers includes several notable names:

• Norway’s Government Pension Fund

• Swiss National Bank

• South Korea’s pension and investment authorities

Each reportedly added MSTR shares representing around 700 BTC in exposure.

Meanwhile, U.S. state retirement systems in California, New York, North Carolina, and Kentucky collectively added exposure equivalent to 1,000 BTC. Even smaller players like Sweden, France, Liechtenstein, and Saudi Arabia made minor but notable additions — with France and Saudi Arabia opening their first recorded positions.

This trend highlights growing institutional interest in Bitcoin at the sovereign level — a significant shift from retail-driven demand seen in previous market cycles.

ETF Exposure Lags, But MSTR Interest Grows

While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in 2024, sovereign adoption of these products has been slower than expected. In fact, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board fully exited its 3,400 BTC-equivalent position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust during the same period.

Despite the slower ETF uptake, Standard Chartered sees the increase in MSTR holdings as a strong confirmation of its thesis: that Bitcoin will continue attracting new institutional classes of investors, thereby driving long-term price growth.

Why $500,000?

Standard Chartered’s bold projection is based on a few key factors:

1. Growing institutional demand: As Bitcoin becomes a recognized digital store of value, more long-term investors are entering the market.

2. Supply constraints: With only 21 million BTC ever to be mined, growing demand inevitably exerts upward pressure on price.

3. Diversification strategy: Governments and funds are increasingly looking for assets outside traditional currencies and bonds.

Kendrick emphasized that the latest 13F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — which require large institutional managers to report their holdings — provide a transparent glimpse into this growing trend.

“When institutions buy Bitcoin, prices tend to rise,” Kendrick summarized.

Calm Volatility, Strong Fundamentals

Despite the increasing interest and inflows, the market has remained surprisingly calm. Short-term volatility is currently sitting at 18-month lows, hovering between 35% and 40%. This suggests a stable environment where accumulation is happening without excessive speculation.

This balance between rising demand and low market turbulence could set the stage for a major upward move in the coming months.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

As of May 21, 2025, Bitcoin continues to trade above $105,000, and some analysts believe a breakout beyond its all-time high of $107,000 could happen soon. If that level is breached, the next significant price target is $115,000, and longer-term projections remain even more optimistic.

Standard Chartered’s timeline suggests that the $500,000 target could be reached before President Trump leaves office, hinting at a roughly two-year runway for such growth — assuming favorable market and regulatory conditions.

Final Thoughts

The quiet accumulation of Bitcoin exposure by sovereign entities could be a major turning point in crypto history. If the trend continues, it not only validates Bitcoin’s status as a global store of value but also supports the possibility of substantial price appreciation in the near to medium term.

As institutional participation deepens and demand outpaces supply, Bitcoin’s climb to $500,000 may not just be bold — it could become inevitable.