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Bitcoin is heading for another monthly decline, marking a rare deviation from its usual strong performance in the fourth quarter. But despite the current red candles, Bitfinex analysts say demand could resurface soon, especially as larger holders begin accumulating again.
Bitcoin Breaks Its Usual November Trend
Bitcoin has historically performed extremely well in November. Data from CoinGlass shows that November is typically Bitcoin’s strongest month, delivering an average gain of 40.82%. Even October has usually been a solid month, averaging nearly 20% in returns.
But 2025 is not following the script.
October closed with a 3.69% decline, surprising traders who expected a seasonal boost. Now, November is also on track to end in the red, with Bitcoin trading 20.60% below its monthly open as of the latest Bitfinex report.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits near $87,305, according to CoinMarketCap — a level that reflects ongoing uncertainty across crypto markets.
Bitfinex analysts noted that “historic seasonality metrics have failed to hold up” this quarter, raising questions about whether traditional patterns can still be relied on in a maturing market.
Short-Term Holders Face Pressure as BTC Drops Below Key Cost Basis
Bitfinex highlighted that Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the lower band of the short-term holders’ cost basis model. This is only the third time since early 2024 that this has happened.
Short-term holders — those who have held their BTC for less than 155 days — currently have an average realized price of $86,787. This means many recent buyers are now underwater, which often signals psychological pressure and an increased chance of short-term selling.
The analysts also pointed to heavy buying activity between $106,000 and $118,000, a range where unusually large inflows occurred. As Bitcoin continues trading far below those levels, a deeper group of investors is now “capitulating at a loss.”
Two Possible Market Paths: Rebound or Extended Accumulation
Following the recent drawdown, analysts say Bitcoin is now at a crossroads.
According to Bitfinex, the market could see:
1. A meaningful resurgence in demand
This scenario would likely emerge if whales continue re-accumulating and macro sentiment stabilizes. A rebound could form quickly, especially if BTC reclaims key short-term levels.
2. A longer and deeper accumulation phase
If demand remains weak, Bitcoin could enter a broader consolidation range similar to previous mid-cycle periods. This would reflect reduced risk appetite and a normalization of overheated positioning seen earlier this quarter.
Both paths depend heavily on whether large holders step in — and early data suggests they may already be moving.
Whale Demand Appears to Be Reawakening
While retail sentiment remains soft, whale activity is showing the first signs of improvement. Data from Santiment reveals that the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has increased by 0.47% since Nov. 11, equivalent to 91 additional large wallets.
This rise in whale holdings often signals a shift toward strategic accumulation. Historically, such periods have preceded recovery phases, although timing remains uncertain.
For traders, this uptick offers an early indication that long-term confidence is not fading, even as short-term volatility continues.
Seasonal Trends Cooling Off, but December Still Historically Mild
Bitcoin’s mixed performance is also challenging long-held assumptions about seasonality. While November usually delivers strong returns, December has often been a calmer month. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged 4.75% returns in December — a modest figure compared to the explosive rallies of previous quarters.
Analysts warn that while historical data provides useful context, the current market structure is heavily influenced by macroeconomic shifts, leveraged positioning, and rapid sector rotation — factors that can override seasonal expectations.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s back-to-back monthly declines are unusual, especially during a period where seasonal strength is typically expected. But despite the downturn, data suggests that whale interest is slowly returning, offering a potential foundation for renewed demand.
Whether Bitcoin rebounds in the coming weeks or enters a deeper accumulation phase will depend largely on how institutional and large-scale investors respond to current price levels. For now, the market remains cautious — but not without signs of quiet confidence building beneath the surface.
