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Bitcoin’s latest wave of large-holder selling is not a sign of panic or a major market reversal, according to new data from Glassnode. Analysts say the activity is aligned with typical late-cycle behavior, where long-term investors gradually take profits rather than exit the market in large clusters.
On Thursday, a wallet identified as belonging to trader Owen Gunden moved 2,400 BTC — valued at more than $237 million — to the crypto exchange Kraken, according to blockchain analytics firm Arkham. This move added to a series of recent whale transactions that sparked concerns about rising selling pressure.
However, Glassnode analysts noted that the narrative of “OG whales dumping” oversimplifies the reality. Instead, current data shows long-term holders are distributing their Bitcoin at a steady pace, consistent with previous bull-market phases.
Glassnode: Activity Shows Regular Profit-Taking, Not Panic
According to Glassnode’s latest report, the monthly average spending by long-term holders has climbed from around 12,000 BTC per day in early July to nearly 26,000 BTC per day this week. The firm said this points to “regular and evenly spaced distribution,” not a sudden departure of early adopters.
Analysts described the trend as typical late-cycle activity:
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
Glassnode also noted that long-term holders have taken profits in every previous cycle. The current trend, they argue, fits within historical patterns rather than signaling an abnormal shift.
Kronos Research: Market Hasn’t Topped Yet
Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, agreed that the recent whale activity appears structured and orderly. Liu described the selling as part of a natural rotation, not a reaction to fear or weakening market conditions.
He emphasized that a late-cycle phase does not automatically mean Bitcoin has reached its peak:
“Late cycle doesn’t mean the market is capped. It means momentum has cooled while macro and liquidity steer the ship.”
Liu added that fading expectations of rate cuts and broader economic uncertainties have softened short-term price action. Still, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics suggest that a local bottom may be forming.
One indicator he highlighted is Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit ratio (NUPR), currently around 0.476, which historically aligns with short-term market lows.
Sentiment Drops as Market Cools
Across the broader crypto market, sentiment has turned cautious as prices continue to soften. Analysts point to macroeconomic factors, including shifting investor preferences toward assets with more direct links to monetary policy and credit flows.
While whale selling adds pressure, the overall market remains structurally stable. Glassnode’s data suggests liquidity is still resilient enough to absorb selling — although more uneven than earlier in the cycle.
Are We Near a Market Top? Analysts Split
Charlie Sherry, head of finance at Australian exchange BTC Markets, said that whale selling alone is not usually a major concern. This time, however, the lack of strong buy-side support makes the trend more noteworthy.
He pointed to historical timing patterns that indicate a potential cycle top may already be in place. Previous market peaks occurred roughly four years apart:
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December 2017 top came 1,067 days after the cycle bottom
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November 2021 top came 1,058 days after the prior low
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October 6, 2025 all-time high arrived 1,050 days from the bottom
Based on that pattern, Sherry said it is “plausible” that the latest peak marked the top of the current cycle.
But Four-Year Cycle May Be Losing Influence
Still, Sherry cautioned that the traditional four-year cycle model may be less reliable today. Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved significantly, driven by exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury participation, and broader institutional interest.
