Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a critical phase of its current market cycle. Despite holding steady above $106,000, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is facing a sharp decline in large transaction activity, fueling concerns about its short-term direction. However, while some indicators point to a potential correction, others show that Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains intact—and even strong in some areas.

One of the most notable shifts in recent weeks has been a dramatic decline in large Bitcoin transactions. According to data from IntoTheBlock, shared by analyst Ali Martinez, the number of transactions exceeding $100,000 fell from 34,000 to 17,000 in June—a 50% drop. This steep decline suggests that large holders, or “whales,” are either stepping back from the market or choosing to hold their assets rather than actively trading.

The decrease in high-value transactions could reflect reduced speculative interest or cautious behavior in response to market conditions. It also raises questions about short-term liquidity and momentum, especially when Bitcoin’s price faces resistance near key technical levels.

Adding to the pressure is an 829% increase in Bitcoin’s exchange outflow mean, as reported by CryptoQuant. This metric tracks the average size of BTC being moved out of exchanges, and a surge typically signals that investors are either cashing out or transferring assets to cold storage. In this case, the sharp rise could indicate a round of profit-taking, following Bitcoin’s rebound to above $108,000 last week.

These developments have fueled fears of a deeper correction. However, analysts caution against viewing the data as purely negative. When studied alongside broader on-chain indicators, the picture becomes more nuanced.

The Puell Multiple—a well-known metric used to gauge overbought or oversold conditions based on miner revenue—currently sits at 1.2 and is trending lower. While a decline suggests that Bitcoin could face further downside, it also opens the door for a strong recovery. Historically, when the Puell Multiple approaches 0.4, it has signaled oversold territory—often preceding major bullish reversals.

Similarly, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which measures the relationship between market capitalization and transaction volume, remains relatively stable at 31.4. A steady NVT indicates equilibrium between market valuation and on-chain activity, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin is not yet showing signs of overextension or extreme fear. This stability could help the price find a new support level even if short-term volatility increases.

Perhaps most importantly, recent data shows continued Bitcoin accumulation—despite the slowdown in whale trading. According to CoinGlass, spot exchange netflows show that approximately $4.68 billion worth of BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges in recent weeks. The largest outflows were recorded between June 9 and June 16, a period marked by heavy accumulation, likely by long-term holders moving coins into secure storage.

This accumulation trend is seen as a key signal of market resilience. Rather than panic selling, many investors appear to be preparing for long-term positions, a strategy that can reduce overall supply on exchanges and support price stability over time. In fact, data suggests that accumulation in early July is even stronger than it was in June, further reinforcing positive long-term sentiment.

In summary, Bitcoin may be facing temporary headwinds with reduced whale activity and increased exchange outflows pointing to some investor caution. But deeper analysis reveals that the broader market remains structurally sound. Accumulation patterns, steady transaction ratios, and potential oversold signals suggest that even if a short-term dip occurs, Bitcoin has the underlying strength to recover.

With the crypto market entering a historically active month and key metrics showing signs of foundational support, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its current level—or even stage a rebound—should not be ruled out. The coming weeks may test the resolve of holders, but so far, the data points to a market that is adjusting rather than collapsing.